A Comprehensive Macroeconomic Uncertainty Measure for the Euro Area and Its Implications to COVID-19 - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook A Comprehensive Macroeconomic Uncertainty Measure for the Euro Area and Its Implications to COVID-19 write by Mariarosaria Comunale. This book was released on 2023-11-03. A Comprehensive Macroeconomic Uncertainty Measure for the Euro Area and Its Implications to COVID-19 available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. This paper develops a new data-driven metric to capture MacroEconomic Uncertainty (MEU) in the euro area. The measure is constructed as the conditional volatility of the unforecastable components of a large set of time series, accounting for the monetary union as well as cross-country heterogeneity. MEU exhibits the largest spike at the time of the COVID-19 outbreak and is noticeably different from other more financial-oriented and policy-driven uncertainty measures. It also reveals a significant increase in inflation uncertainty in 2021-2022. Our BVAR-based analysis shows that an unexpected increase in the MEU has a negative and persistent impact on euro area's industrial production, accounting for 80 percent of its reduction during the first wave of COVID-19, therefore supporting the interpretation of COVID-19 shock as a macroeconomic uncertainty shock. Public debt increases in response to this uncertainty shock. Finally, an increase in MEU negatively affects Emerging Europe countries, contributing the most to the decline in their economic activity during this COVID-19 period.
Economic Policy and the Covid-19 Crisis
Economic Policy and the Covid-19 Crisis - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook Economic Policy and the Covid-19 Crisis write by Bernadette Andreosso-O'Callaghan. This book was released on 2021-09-28. Economic Policy and the Covid-19 Crisis available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. This book offers an assessment of the different monetary and fiscal policy responses that have been implemented by national governments in major European and Asian countries faced with the Covid-19 crisis since 2020; it also deals with the case of the US experience as a benchmarking example. The book provides a comprehensive cross-country comparative study on health crisis management at the macroeconomic level. Its focus on monetary and fiscal policies across different countries in Asia, Europe and the USA makes it unique. Divided into three parts following a general introduction that sets the context of the study, the book deals with the case of the USA, EU and European countries as well as with that of key Asian countries. Of specific relevance is the European Union and euro-area contexts that serve as a framework to the different EU national monetary and fiscal policy responses. Each chapter deals with a specific country, including Italy and the UK in Europe and Singapore and South Korea in Asia, and covers the following topics: the extent of the outbreak of the public health crisis and its macroeconomic impact; the comparative examination of fiscal and monetary policy responses to both crises; and an overall assessment of the effectiveness of these policies along with the public health policy to mitigate the economic impact. Given the unprecedented nature of the Covid-19 crisis, anyone eager to know more about its macroeconomic impact and ensuing policies in a comparative framework will be keen to read this book. It will be essential reading to any researcher, policy maker and/or analyst working in the area of public policy and is also a unique contribution to the field of European studies, Asian studies and Comparative Economic Studies.
Uncertainty in the Euro Area During the First Wave of the COVID-19 Pandemic
Uncertainty in the Euro Area During the First Wave of the COVID-19 Pandemic - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook Uncertainty in the Euro Area During the First Wave of the COVID-19 Pandemic write by . This book was released on 2020. Uncertainty in the Euro Area During the First Wave of the COVID-19 Pandemic available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Uncertainty - a state in which assessing future conditions by economic agents is hampered - rose sharply during the current pandemic. A bout of uncertainty can have similar effects like an adverse demand shock, dampening private consumption, investment and, hence, inflation. According to our own estimations, however, the pandemic-induced spike of uncertainty has caused little macroeconomic damage so far. The introduction of PEPP was a quick and decisive action that stopped uncertainty from rising further and probably contained its adverse economic effects. This document was provided by the Policy Department for Economic, Scientific and Quality of Life Policies at the request of the committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) ahead of the Monetary Dialogue with the ECB President on 19 November 2020.
Tracking Global Economic Uncertainty
Tracking Global Economic Uncertainty - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook Tracking Global Economic Uncertainty write by . This book was released on 2021. Tracking Global Economic Uncertainty available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. This paper sheds light on the impact of global macroeconomic uncertainty on the euro area economy. We build on the methodology proposed by Jurado et al. (2015) and estimate global as well as country-specific measures of economic uncertainty for fifteen key euro area trade partners and the euro area. Our measures display a clear counter-cyclical pattern and line up well to a wide range of historical events generally associated with heightened uncertainty. In addition, following Piffer and Podstawski (2018), we estimate a Proxy SVAR where we instrument uncertainty shocks with changes in the price of gold around specific past events. We find that, historically, global uncertainty shocks have been important drivers of fluctuations in euro area economic activity, with one standard deviation increase in the identified uncertainty shock subtracting around 0.15 percentage points from euro area industrial production on impact.
The Heterogeneous Economic Impact of COVID-19 Among Euro Area Regions and Countries
The Heterogeneous Economic Impact of COVID-19 Among Euro Area Regions and Countries - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook The Heterogeneous Economic Impact of COVID-19 Among Euro Area Regions and Countries write by Elvira Prades Illanes. This book was released on 2020. The Heterogeneous Economic Impact of COVID-19 Among Euro Area Regions and Countries available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. The global spread of COVID-19 and, above all, the social distancing measures adopted to contain the health crisis have resulted in a significant standstill in economic activity in most economies. The economic impact on different countries' or regions' economies may vary significantly depending on their respective productive structures and will also be influenced by the cross-sectoral customer-supplier relationships in the domestic and international supply chains. This article investigates how the impact of the shock triggered by COVID-19 may vary depending on these two characteristics: differences in the productive structure and cross-sectoral connections. First, the impact of two different scenarios envisaged for Spain on the value added of its different regions (Comunidades Autónomas) is quantified. Then, those same scenarios are used to estimate the impact of an identical shock on the largest euro area countries (Germany, France, Italy and Spain). The findings confirm that the effects of the restrictions imposed on economic activity in Spain to contain the pandemic vary according to the region on account of the different productive structures and cross-sectoral relationships. Broadly speaking, it appears that the estimated impact is significantly higher in the regions most exposed to the sectors related to accommodation and food service activities, such as the island regions. The impact would also be high in other regions, which tend to be those where the manufacturing of vehicles is of particular importance, due not only to the closure of production plants, but also to the spillover effect on other sectors. By applying to the main euro area economies the same degree of sectoral shutdowns as that observed in the Spanish economy, the impact on Germany, France and, to a lesser extent, Italy is comparatively smaller than in Spain. The differences in productive structure and cross-sectoral connections render the Spanish economy relatively more vulnerable to a common shock such as the current pandemic due to its greater reliance on those sectors particularly stricken by the social distancing measures.
