A Model to Assess the Probabilities of Growth, Fiscal, and Financial Crises - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook A Model to Assess the Probabilities of Growth, Fiscal, and Financial Crises write by Mr.Suman S Basu. This book was released on 2017-12-15. A Model to Assess the Probabilities of Growth, Fiscal, and Financial Crises available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. This paper summarizes a suite of early warning models to assess the probabilities of growth, fiscal, and financial crises in advanced economies and emerging markets. We estimate separate signal-extraction models for each type of crisis and sample of countries, and we use our results to generate “histories of vulnerabilities” for countries, regions, and the world. For the global financial crisis, our models report that vulnerabilities in advanced economies were rooted in the bursting of leveraged bubbles, while vulnerabilities in emerging markets stemmed from lengthy booms in credit and asset prices combined with growing weaknesses in the corporate and external sectors.
Predicting Fiscal Crises: A Machine Learning Approach
Predicting Fiscal Crises: A Machine Learning Approach - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook Predicting Fiscal Crises: A Machine Learning Approach write by Klaus-Peter Hellwig. This book was released on 2021-05-27. Predicting Fiscal Crises: A Machine Learning Approach available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. In this paper I assess the ability of econometric and machine learning techniques to predict fiscal crises out of sample. I show that the econometric approaches used in many policy applications cannot outperform a simple heuristic rule of thumb. Machine learning techniques (elastic net, random forest, gradient boosted trees) deliver significant improvements in accuracy. Performance of machine learning techniques improves further, particularly for developing countries, when I expand the set of potential predictors and make use of algorithmic selection techniques instead of relying on a small set of variables deemed important by the literature. There is considerable agreement across learning algorithms in the set of selected predictors: Results confirm the importance of external sector stock and flow variables found in the literature but also point to demographics and the quality of governance as important predictors of fiscal crises. Fiscal variables appear to have less predictive value, and public debt matters only to the extent that it is owed to external creditors.
Fiscal Crises
Fiscal Crises - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook Fiscal Crises write by Mrs.Kerstin Gerling. This book was released on 2017-04-03. Fiscal Crises available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. A key objective of fiscal policy is to maintain the sustainability of public finances and avoid crises. Remarkably, there is very limited analysis on fiscal crises. This paper presents a new database of fiscal crises covering different country groups, including low-income developing countries (LIDCs) that have been mostly ignored in the past. Countries faced on average two crises since 1970, with the highest frequency in LIDCs and lowest in advanced economies. The data sheds some light on policies and economic dynamics around crises. LIDCs, which are usually seen as more vulnerable to shocks, appear to suffer the least in crisis periods. Surprisingly, advanced economies face greater turbulence (growth declines sharply in the first two years of the crisis), with half of them experiencing economic contractions. Fiscal policy is usually procyclical as countries curtail expenditure growth when economic activity weakens. We also find that the decline in economic growth is magnified if accompanied by a financial crisis.
Financial Crises Explanations, Types, and Implications
Financial Crises Explanations, Types, and Implications - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook Financial Crises Explanations, Types, and Implications write by Mr.Stijn Claessens. This book was released on 2013-01-30. Financial Crises Explanations, Types, and Implications available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. This paper reviews the literature on financial crises focusing on three specific aspects. First, what are the main factors explaining financial crises? Since many theories on the sources of financial crises highlight the importance of sharp fluctuations in asset and credit markets, the paper briefly reviews theoretical and empirical studies on developments in these markets around financial crises. Second, what are the major types of financial crises? The paper focuses on the main theoretical and empirical explanations of four types of financial crises—currency crises, sudden stops, debt crises, and banking crises—and presents a survey of the literature that attempts to identify these episodes. Third, what are the real and financial sector implications of crises? The paper briefly reviews the short- and medium-run implications of crises for the real economy and financial sector. It concludes with a summary of the main lessons from the literature and future research directions.
Essays on Financial Crises and Growth Surges
Essays on Financial Crises and Growth Surges - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook Essays on Financial Crises and Growth Surges write by Bédhat Jean-Marc Atsebi. This book was released on 2021. Essays on Financial Crises and Growth Surges available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle.
