A Simple Forecasting Accuracy Criterion Under Rational Expectations - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook A Simple Forecasting Accuracy Criterion Under Rational Expectations write by Mr.José M. Barrionuevo. This book was released on 1992-06-01. A Simple Forecasting Accuracy Criterion Under Rational Expectations available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. A simple criterion based on the properties of the forecast error is presented to evaluate the accuracy of forecasts. The efficiency conditions of an optimization problem are used to show that under rational expectations the standard statistical conditions are necessary, but not sufficient to ensure efficiency. This criterion is used to examine the accuracy of the World Economic Outlook projections of growth and inflation for the seven major industrial countries. Time series models are then estimated and the efficiency of the World Economic Outlook projections relative to a benchmark time series model is examined. A number of empirical tests suggest that the year ahead projections of growth and inflation in the World Economic Outlook are unbiased after 1982.
A Simple Forecasting Accuracy Criterion Under Rational Expectations
A Simple Forecasting Accuracy Criterion Under Rational Expectations - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook A Simple Forecasting Accuracy Criterion Under Rational Expectations write by José Barrionuevo. This book was released on 2006. A Simple Forecasting Accuracy Criterion Under Rational Expectations available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. A simple criterion based on the properties of the forecast error is presented to evaluate the accuracy of forecasts. The efficiency conditions of an optimization problem are used to show that under rational expectations the standard statistical conditions are necessary, but not sufficient to ensure efficiency. This criterion is used to examine the accuracy of the World Economic Outlook projections of growth and inflation for the seven major industrial countries. Time series models are then estimated and the efficiency of the World Economic Outlook projections relative to a benchmark time series model is examined. A number of empirical tests suggest that the year ahead projections of growth and inflation in the World Economic Outlook are unbiased after 1982.
A simple forecasting accuracy criterion under rational expectations
A simple forecasting accuracy criterion under rational expectations - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook A simple forecasting accuracy criterion under rational expectations write by José M. Barrionuevo. This book was released on 1992. A simple forecasting accuracy criterion under rational expectations available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle.
A Simple Forecasting Accuracy Criterion Under Rational Expectations
A Simple Forecasting Accuracy Criterion Under Rational Expectations - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook A Simple Forecasting Accuracy Criterion Under Rational Expectations write by José M. Barrionuevo. This book was released on 1992. A Simple Forecasting Accuracy Criterion Under Rational Expectations available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle.
Business Cycles
Business Cycles - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook Business Cycles write by Victor Zarnowitz. This book was released on 2007-11-01. Business Cycles available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. This volume presents the most complete collection available of the work of Victor Zarnowitz, a leader in the study of business cycles, growth, inflation, and forecasting.. With characteristic insight, Zarnowitz examines theories of the business cycle, including Keynesian and monetary theories and more recent rational expectation and real business cycle theories. He also measures trends and cycles in economic activity; evaluates the performance of leading indicators and their composite measures; surveys forecasting tools and performance of business and academic economists; discusses historical changes in the nature and sources of business cycles; and analyzes how successfully forecasting firms and economists predict such key economic variables as interest rates and inflation.
