Chronicle of a Decline Foretold - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook Chronicle of a Decline Foretold write by Ms.Mitali Das. This book was released on 2013-01-29. Chronicle of a Decline Foretold available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. China is on the eve of a demographic shift that will have profound consequences on its economic and social landscape. Within a few years the working age population will reach a historical peak, and then begin a precipitous decline. This fact, along with anecdotes of rapidly rising migrant wages and episodic labor shortages, has raised questions about whether China is poised to cross the Lewis Turning Point, a point at which it would move from a vast supply of low-cost workers to a labor shortage economy. Crossing this threshold will have far-reaching implications for both China and the rest of the world. This paper empirically assesses when the transition to a labor shortage economy is likely to occur. Our central result is that on current trends, the Lewis Turning Point will emerge between 2020 and 2025. Alternative scenarios—with higher fertility, greater labor participation rates, financial reform or higher productivity—may peripherally delay or accelerate the onset of the turning point, but demographics will be the dominant force driving the depletion of surplus labor.
China Has Reached the Lewis Turning Point
China Has Reached the Lewis Turning Point - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook China Has Reached the Lewis Turning Point write by Xiaobo Zhang. This book was released on 2010. China Has Reached the Lewis Turning Point available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. In the past several years, labor shortages in China have become an issue. However, there is heated debate as to whether China has passed the Lewis turning point and moved from a period of unlimited supply to a new era of labor shortage. Most empirical studies on this topic focus on estimation of total labor supply and demand. Yet the poor quality of China's labor statistics leaves the debate open. In this paper, China's position along the Lewis continuum is examined though primary surveys of wage rates, which offer a more reliable statistic than employment data. Our results show a clear rising trend in real wage rates since 2003. The acceleration of real wages even in slack seasons indicates that the era of surplus labor is over. This finding has important policy implications for China's future development.
Has China Reached the Lewis Turning Point
Has China Reached the Lewis Turning Point - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook Has China Reached the Lewis Turning Point write by Xiaobo Zhang. This book was released on 2009. Has China Reached the Lewis Turning Point available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle.
Understanding China's Lewis Turning Point
Understanding China's Lewis Turning Point - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook Understanding China's Lewis Turning Point write by Annie Wei. This book was released on 2014. Understanding China's Lewis Turning Point available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. The question of whether China has reached the Lewis turning point (LTP) has recently been intensively debated in the literature. Partly, this is due to the profound policy implication of the turning point posited by Lewis (1954) and Ranis and Fei (1961), while it is also closely related to the growing concern of China's growth sustainability. Various empirical approaches and criteria have been applied in the literature and greatly contributed to the diverse findings on the questions of China's LTP. In this paper, we carefully review the approaches applied in the existing studies and revisit the question by applying the wage-productivity approach which is most closely to the theoretical definition of LTP and the core criterion recommended by Minami (1968). Moreover, we examine the regional heterogeneity of China's LTP which has long been neglected in the literature but shall have significant policy implications to China's regional economic development. Our results show that in China's Eastern provinces, the marginal product of labour has increased rapidly and outpaced agricultural incomes by 2002 for the earliest and 2008 for the latest. In Central China, most provinces included in the sample of our study have passed the LTP by the mid to late 2000s except for Jiangxi province. In contrast, half of the examined provinces in Western China have not yet passed the turning point. The regional heterogeneity of the LTP can be explained by diverse levels of economic development of China's regions. It also indicates that China should adopt heterogeneous industrial policies across regions.
Debating the Lewis Turning Point in China
Debating the Lewis Turning Point in China - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook Debating the Lewis Turning Point in China write by Yiping Huang. This book was released on 2016-04-08. Debating the Lewis Turning Point in China available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. HUANG Yiping is Professor of Economics at the China Center for Economic Research, National School of Development, Peking University, China. He is also an adjunct professor at the Australian National University and a member of the China Finance 40 Forum. His current research focuses on macroeconomic policy, international finance and rural development. CAI Fang is Director, Professor and Fellow at the Institute of Population and Labor Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, China. He serves as Vice Chairman of the China Population Association. His current research focuses on China’s labor migration, population and development, economic reform, income distribution and poverty.
