COVID-19, Labor Market Shocks, Poverty in Brazil - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook COVID-19, Labor Market Shocks, Poverty in Brazil write by Fabio Cereda. This book was released on 2020. COVID-19, Labor Market Shocks, Poverty in Brazil available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. In this note we estimate the short-term economic impact of the COVID-19 crisis on Brazilian families vis-a-vis labor shocks. The analysis, using a microsimulation model which incorporates subnational shocks from a computable general equilibrium growth model, shows that over 30 million workers in Brazil may see significant reductions in their labor income in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Two-thirds of these workers are informal workers or own-account workers, groups without access to unemployment protection. These household shocks would reduce average per capita income by 7.6 percent, with the largest impact on the second and third quintiles of the income distribution. These income shocks are inequality-increasing: without any mitigation measures, inequality would increase by 4 percent. The country's first line of defense, its existing unemployment insurance system, reduces the income shock to 5.3 percent. Even so, an additional 8.4 million Brazilians could fall into poverty. The policy responses announced by the government, and particularly the Auxilio Emergencial (AE) transfer, have the potential to fully absorb the labor income shock for the poorest 40 percent and reduce poverty. Yet, these results reflect annualized income, obscuring the sharp reduction in monthly income if demand shocks persist after the AE ends. Looking towards the next phase of the response, considering extensions of AE that are either less generous or more restricted provide a fiscally prudent approach for continuing to support Brazil's most vulnerable.
The Short-Term Impact of COVID-19 on Labor Markets, Poverty and Inequality in Brazil
The Short-Term Impact of COVID-19 on Labor Markets, Poverty and Inequality in Brazil - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook The Short-Term Impact of COVID-19 on Labor Markets, Poverty and Inequality in Brazil write by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-03-05. The Short-Term Impact of COVID-19 on Labor Markets, Poverty and Inequality in Brazil available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. We document the short-term impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Brazilian labor market focusing on employment, wages and hours worked using the nationally representative household surveys PNAD-Continua and PNAD COVID. Sectors most susceptible to the shock because they are more contact-intensive and less teleworkable, such as construction, domestic services and hospitality, suffered large job losses and reductions in hours. Given low income workers experienced the largest decline in earnings, extreme poverty and the Gini coefficient based on labor income increased by around 9.2 and 5 percentage points, respectively, due to the immediate shock. The government’s broad based, temporary Emergency Aid transfer program more than offset the labor income losses for the bottom four deciles, however, such that poverty relative to the pre-COVID baseline fell. At a cost of around 4 percent of GDP in 2020 such support is not fiscally sustainable beyond the short-term and ended in late 2020. The challenge will be to avoid a sharp increase in poverty and inequality if the labor market does not pick up sufficiently fast in 2021.
Brazil Poverty and Equity Assessment
Brazil Poverty and Equity Assessment - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook Brazil Poverty and Equity Assessment write by World Bank Group. This book was released on 2022. Brazil Poverty and Equity Assessment available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. In 2020, Brazil was about to face socioeconomic disruptions of historical proportions. The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic has broken several undesirable Brazilian records. First, the pandemic wreaked an enormous direct human toll, sickening millions and causing the death of 195,441 Brazilians in 2020 and 619,056 in 2021. Second, the Brazilian economy experienced its worst contraction in recorded history, with real gross domestic product (GDP) per capita growth in 2020 at -4.7 percent (compared to the previous record of -4.4 percent in 2015). Third, COVID-related closures and other measures led to a massive, unprecedented exit of workers, with an estimated 10 million people leaving the labor force between the third quarter of 2019 and the third quarter of 2020. Employment opportunities were scarce for those who remained in the labor force, with the unemployment rate standing at 14.6 percent in the third quarter of 2020. Many individuals at the bottom of the income distribution work in precarious jobs and lack a resilient source of income, forcing them to rely on public transfers during the pandemic. The significant progress in Brazilian households' welfare in the 2000-2010 decade responded mainly to labor market dynamics. Between December 2003 and December 2014, formal employment grew on average 5 percent annually, outpacing annual GDP growth of 3.5 percent (Campos and Souen 2017). Increases in the minimum wage (Cord, Genoni, and Rodriguez-Castelan 2015) and a surge in skills (including more highly skilled labor among the vulnerable) contributed positively to the increase in welfare. Still, a significant share of Brazilian workers has remained informal or not protected by the National Social Security System (INSS). When economic shocks hit Brazil, the labor market outcomes of low-income individuals are the first to be affected. Thus, income effects for the poorest are strongly correlated with the rollout of social protection cash transfers. The Programa Bolsa Familia (PBF) decreased its coverage in the years following the 2014 crisis when Brazil's poverty rate was increasing. Meanwhile, the widespread coverage of the Auxilio Emergencial program in 2020 contributed to the decrease of national poverty rates. Other income groups can weather economic shocks much better. People in middle of the income distribution maintain their steady pensions, and the richest Brazilian recover quickly thanks to savings, wealth, and accumulated assets that help them to adapt.
Employment in Crisis
Employment in Crisis - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook Employment in Crisis write by Joana Silva. This book was released on 2021-10-08. Employment in Crisis available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. A region known for its volatility, Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) has suffered severe economic and social setbacks from crises—including the COVID-19 pandemic. These crises have taken their toll on careers, wage growth, and productivity. Employment in Crisis: The Path to Better Jobs in a Post-COVID-19 Latin America provides new evidence on the effects of crises on the region’s workers and firms and suggests several policy responses that can bolster long-term and inclusive economic growth. This report has three key findings. First, crises lead to persistent employment losses and accelerate structural changes away from the formal sector. This change occurs more through reductions in the creation of formal jobs than through job destruction. Second, some workers recover from crises, while others are permanently scarred by them. Low-skilled workers can suffer up to a decade of lower earnings caused by crises, while high-skilled workers rebound fast, exacerbating the LAC region’s high level of inequality. Formal workers suffer smaller employment and wage losses in localities with higher rates of informality. And the reduced job flows caused by crises decrease welfare, but workers in localities with more job opportunities, whether formal or informal, bounce back better. Third, crises’ cleansing effects can increase efficiency and productivity, but these effects are dampened by the LAC region’s less competitive market structure. Rather than becoming more agile and productive during economic downturns, protected sectors and firms gain market share and crowd out others, trapping valuable resources. This report proposes a three-pronged mix of policies to improve the LAC region’s responses to crises: •Create a more stable macroeconomic environment to smooth the impacts of crises, including automatic stabilizers such as unemployment insurance and short-term compensation programs; •Increase the capacity of social protection and labor programs to respond to crises and coalesce these programs into systems that complement income support with reemployment assistance and reskilling opportunities; and •Tackle structural issues, including the lack of product market competition and the spatial dimension behind poor labor market adjustment—a “good jobs and good firms†? agenda.
Unemployment and Poverty in Brazil
Unemployment and Poverty in Brazil - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook Unemployment and Poverty in Brazil write by Neil Turner. This book was released on 2012-12-21. Unemployment and Poverty in Brazil available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Research Paper (undergraduate) from the year 2012 in the subject Ethnology / Cultural Anthropology, grade: none, , language: English, abstract: Brazil has been struggling with the challenges of unemployment, job inequality, insufficient income from labor and poverty for the past three decades. Although the 1990s and early 2000s showed some economic recovery, raising the expectations that living conditions would be better, conditions have improved very slowly and in some areas worsened. This paper seeks to present an overview of labor market performance in Brazil, how inequality interacts with insufficient income and more specifically its impact and relationship to poverty. It reviews policies and initiatives within a socio-economic context undertaken to address these concerns and the distributional impact of these issues. This paper will also provide analysis of labor trends relative to the challenges of working Brazilian families, issues related to the deterioration of employment conditions, and suggest improvements relative to Brazil’s social, economic and cultural transformation.
