Cross-country Causes and Consequences of the Crisis - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook Cross-country Causes and Consequences of the Crisis write by Andrew K. Rose. This book was released on 2010. Cross-country Causes and Consequences of the Crisis available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. We update Rose and Spiegel (2009a, b) and search for simple quantitative models of macroeconomic and financial indicators of the 'Great Recession' of 2008-09. We use a cross-country approach and examine a number of potential causes that have been found to be successful indicators of crisis intensity by other scholars. We check a number of different indicators of crisis intensity, and a variety of different country samples. While countries with higher income seemed to suffer worse crises, we find few clear reliable indicators in the pre-crisis data of the incidence of the Great Recession. Countries with current account surpluses seemed better insulated from slowdowns -- National Bureau of Economic Research web site.
Cross-country Causes and Consequences of the 2008 Crisis
Cross-country Causes and Consequences of the 2008 Crisis - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook Cross-country Causes and Consequences of the 2008 Crisis write by Andrew K. Rose. This book was released on 2009. Cross-country Causes and Consequences of the 2008 Crisis available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Abstract: This paper models the causes of the 2008 financial crisis together with its manifestations, using a Multiple Indicator Multiple Cause (MIMIC) model. Our analysis is conducted on a cross-section of 107 countries; we focus on national causes and consequences of the crisis, ignoring cross-country â??contagionâ?? effects. Our model of the incidence of the crisis combines 2008 changes in real GDP, the stock market, country credit ratings, and the exchange rate. We explore the linkages between these manifestations of the crisis and a number of its possible causes from 2006 and earlier. We include over sixty potential causes of the crisis, covering such categories as: financial system policies and conditions; asset price appreciation in real estate and equity markets; international imbalances and foreign reserve adequacy; macroeconomic policies; and institutional and geographic features. Despite the fact that we use a wide number of possible causes in a flexible statistical framework, we are unable to link most of the commonly-cited causes of the crisis to its incidence across countries. This negative finding in the cross-section makes us skeptical of the accuracy of â??early warningâ?? systems of potential crises, which must also predict their timing
Cross-country Causes and Consequences of the 2008 Crisis
Cross-country Causes and Consequences of the 2008 Crisis - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook Cross-country Causes and Consequences of the 2008 Crisis write by Andrew K. Rose. This book was released on 2009. Cross-country Causes and Consequences of the 2008 Crisis available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle.
Cross-country Causes and Consequences of the 2008 Crisis
Cross-country Causes and Consequences of the 2008 Crisis - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook Cross-country Causes and Consequences of the 2008 Crisis write by Andrew K. Rose. This book was released on 2009. Cross-country Causes and Consequences of the 2008 Crisis available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Abstract: This paper models the causes of the 2008 financial crisis together with its manifestations, using a Multiple Indicator Multiple Cause (MIMIC) model. Our analysis is conducted on a cross-section of 85 countries; we focus on international linkages that may have allowed the crisis to spread across countries. Our model of the cross-country incidence of the crisis combines 2008 changes in real GDP, the stock market, country credit ratings, and the exchange rate. We explore the linkages between these manifestations of the crisis and a number of its possible causes from 2006 and earlier. The causes we consider are both national (such as equity market run-ups that preceded the crisis) and, critically, international financial and real linkages between countries and the epicenter of the crisis. We consider the United States to be the most natural origin of the 2008 crisis, though we also consider six alternative sources of the crisis. A country holding American securities that deteriorate in value is exposed to an American crisis through a financial channel. Similarly, a country which exports to the United States is exposed to an American downturn through a real channel. Despite the fact that we use a wide number of possible causes in a flexible statistical framework, we are unable to find strong evidence that international linkages can be clearly associated with the incidence of the crisis. In particular, countries heavily exposed to either American assets or trade seem to behave little differently than other countries; if anything, countries seem to have benefited slightly from American exposure
Financial Crises Explanations, Types, and Implications
Financial Crises Explanations, Types, and Implications - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook Financial Crises Explanations, Types, and Implications write by Mr.Stijn Claessens. This book was released on 2013-01-30. Financial Crises Explanations, Types, and Implications available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. This paper reviews the literature on financial crises focusing on three specific aspects. First, what are the main factors explaining financial crises? Since many theories on the sources of financial crises highlight the importance of sharp fluctuations in asset and credit markets, the paper briefly reviews theoretical and empirical studies on developments in these markets around financial crises. Second, what are the major types of financial crises? The paper focuses on the main theoretical and empirical explanations of four types of financial crises—currency crises, sudden stops, debt crises, and banking crises—and presents a survey of the literature that attempts to identify these episodes. Third, what are the real and financial sector implications of crises? The paper briefly reviews the short- and medium-run implications of crises for the real economy and financial sector. It concludes with a summary of the main lessons from the literature and future research directions.
