Developments in Demographic Forecasting - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook Developments in Demographic Forecasting write by Stefano Mazzuco. This book was released on 2020-09-28. Developments in Demographic Forecasting available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. This open access book presents new developments in the field of demographic forecasting, covering both mortality, fertility and migration. For each component emerging methods to forecast them are presented. Moreover, instruments for forecasting evaluation are provided. Bayesian models, nonparametric models, cohort approaches, elicitation of expert opinion, evaluation of probabilistic forecasts are some of the topics covered in the book. In addition, the book is accompanied by complementary material on the web allowing readers to practice with some of the ideas exposed in the book. Readers are encouraged to use this material to apply the new methods to their own data. The book is an important read for demographers, applied statisticians, as well as other social scientists interested or active in the field of population forecasting. Professional population forecasters in statistical agencies will find useful new ideas in various chapters.
State and Local Population Projections
State and Local Population Projections - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook State and Local Population Projections write by Stanley K. Smith. This book was released on 2005-12-21. State and Local Population Projections available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. The initial plans for this book sprang from a late-afternoon conversation in a hotel bar. All three authors were attending the 1996 meeting of the Population As- ciation of America in New Orleans. While nursing drinks and expounding on a variety of topics, we began talking about our current research projects. It so happened that all three of us had been entertaining the notion of writing a book on state and local population projections. Recognizing the enormity of the project for a single author, we quickly decided to collaborate. Had we not decided to work together, it is unlikely that this book ever would have been written. The last comprehensive treatment of state and local population projections was Don Pittenger’s excellent work Projecting State and Local Populations (1976). Many changes affecting the production of population projections have occurred since that time. Technological changes have led to vast increases in computing power, new data sources, the development of GIS, and the creation of the Internet. The procedures for applying a number of projection methods have changed considerably, and several completely new methods have been developed.
Aging and the Macroeconomy
Aging and the Macroeconomy - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook Aging and the Macroeconomy write by National Research Council. This book was released on 2013-01-10. Aging and the Macroeconomy available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. The United States is in the midst of a major demographic shift. In the coming decades, people aged 65 and over will make up an increasingly large percentage of the population: The ratio of people aged 65+ to people aged 20-64 will rise by 80%. This shift is happening for two reasons: people are living longer, and many couples are choosing to have fewer children and to have those children somewhat later in life. The resulting demographic shift will present the nation with economic challenges, both to absorb the costs and to leverage the benefits of an aging population. Aging and the Macroeconomy: Long-Term Implications of an Older Population presents the fundamental factors driving the aging of the U.S. population, as well as its societal implications and likely long-term macroeconomic effects in a global context. The report finds that, while population aging does not pose an insurmountable challenge to the nation, it is imperative that sensible policies are implemented soon to allow companies and households to respond. It offers four practical approaches for preparing resources to support the future consumption of households and for adapting to the new economic landscape.
Forecasting Mortality in Developed Countries
Forecasting Mortality in Developed Countries - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook Forecasting Mortality in Developed Countries write by E. Tabeau. This book was released on 2001-02-28. Forecasting Mortality in Developed Countries available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Information on future mortality trends is essential for population forecasts, public health policy, actuarial studies, and many other purposes. Realising the importance of such needs, this volume contains contributions to the theory and practice of forecasting mortality in the relatively favourable circumstances in developed countries of Western Europe. In this context techniques from mathematical statistics and econometrics can provide useful descriptions of past mortality. The naive forecast obtained by extrapolating a fitted model may give as good a forecast as any but forecasting by extrapolation requires careful justification since it assumes the prolongation of historical conditions. On the other hand, whilst it is generally accepted that scientific and other advances will continue to impact on mortality, perhaps dramatically so, it is impossible to quantify more than the outline of future consequences with a strong degree of confidence. The decision to modify an extrapolation of a model fitted to historical data (or conversely choosing not to modify it) in order to obtain a forecast is therefore strongly influenced by subjective and judgmental elements, with the quality of the latter dependent on demographic, epidemiological and indeed perhaps more general considerations. The thread running through the book reflects therefore the necessity of integrating demographic, epidemiological, and statistical factors to obtain an improvement in the prediction of mortality.
Bayesian Demographic Estimation and Forecasting
Bayesian Demographic Estimation and Forecasting - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook Bayesian Demographic Estimation and Forecasting write by John Bryant. This book was released on 2018-06-27. Bayesian Demographic Estimation and Forecasting available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Bayesian Demographic Estimation and Forecasting presents three statistical frameworks for modern demographic estimation and forecasting. The frameworks draw on recent advances in statistical methodology to provide new tools for tackling challenges such as disaggregation, measurement error, missing data, and combining multiple data sources. The methods apply to single demographic series, or to entire demographic systems. The methods unify estimation and forecasting, and yield detailed measures of uncertainty. The book assumes minimal knowledge of statistics, and no previous knowledge of demography. The authors have developed a set of R packages implementing the methods. Data and code for all applications in the book are available on www.bdef-book.com. "This book will be welcome for the scientific community of forecasters...as it presents a new approach which has already given important results and which, in my opinion, will increase its importance in the future." ~Daniel Courgeau, Institut national d'études démographiques
