Domestic and Global Uncertainty - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook Domestic and Global Uncertainty write by Efrem Castelnuovo. This book was released on 2019. Domestic and Global Uncertainty available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. This survey features three parts. The first one covers the recent literature on domestic (i.e., country-specific) uncertainty and offers ten main takeaways. The second part reviews contributions on the fast-growing strand of the literature focusing on the macroeconomic effects of uncertainty spillovers and global uncertainty. The last part proposes a novel measure of global financial uncertainty and shows that its unexpected variations are associated to statistically and economically fluctuations of the world business cycle.
Measuring Global and Country-Specific Uncertainty
Measuring Global and Country-Specific Uncertainty - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook Measuring Global and Country-Specific Uncertainty write by Ezgi O. Ozturk. This book was released on 2017-10-30. Measuring Global and Country-Specific Uncertainty available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Motivated by the literature on the capital asset pricing model, we decompose the uncertainty of a typical forecaster into common and idiosyncratic uncertainty. Using individual survey data from the Consensus Forecasts over the period of 1989-2014, we develop monthly measures of macroeconomic uncertainty covering 45 countries and construct a measure of global uncertainty as the weighted average of country-specific uncertainties. Our measure captures perceived uncertainty of market participants and derives from two components that are shown to exhibit strikingly different behavior. Common uncertainty shocks produce the large and persistent negative response in real economic activity, whereas the contributions of idiosyncratic uncertainty shocks are negligible.
Optimal Imperfection?
Optimal Imperfection? - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook Optimal Imperfection? write by George Downs. This book was released on 2021-02-09. Optimal Imperfection? available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. "Domestic politics matters" has become a rallying cry for international relations scholars over the past decade, yet the question still remains: Just how does it matter? In this book, George Downs and David Rocke argue that an important part of the international impact of domestic politics springs from the institutional responses to its many uncertainties. This impact is due not so much to the errors in judgment these uncertainties can cause as to the strategic and institutional consequences of knowing that such errors are possible. The heart of the book is its formal analysis of how three kinds of domestic uncertainty have shaped international relations through their influence on three very different institutions. One chapter deals with the decision rules that citizens create to cope with uncertainty about the quality of their representation, and how these can lead to the paradoxical "gambling for resurrection" effect. Another chapter describes the extent to which the weak enforcement provisions of GATT can be understood as a mechanism to cope with uncertain but intermittent interest group demands for protection. The third chapter looks at the impact of uncertainty on the creation, survival, and membership of multilateral regulatory institutions, such as the Montreal Protocol and EU, when some states question the capacity of other states to meet their treaty obligations.
The Impact of Global Uncertainty on the Global Economy, and Large Developed and Developing Economies
The Impact of Global Uncertainty on the Global Economy, and Large Developed and Developing Economies - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook The Impact of Global Uncertainty on the Global Economy, and Large Developed and Developing Economies write by Wensheng Kang. This book was released on 2017. The Impact of Global Uncertainty on the Global Economy, and Large Developed and Developing Economies available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Global uncertainty shocks are associated with a sharp decline in global inflation, global growth and in the global interest rate. Over 1981 to 2014 global financial uncertainty forecasts 18.26% and 14.95% of the variation in global growth and global inflation respectively. Global uncertainty shocks have more protracted, statistically significant and substantial effects on global growth, inflation and interest rate than U.S. uncertainty shocks. U.S. uncertainty lags global uncertainty by one month. When controlling for domestic uncertainty, the decline in output following a rise in global uncertainty is statistically significant in each country, with the exception of the decline for China. The effects for the U.S. and for China are also relatively small. For most economies, a positive shock to global uncertainty has a depressing effect on prices and official interest rates. Exceptions are Brazil, Mexico and Russia, economies with large capital outflows during financial crises. Decomposition of global uncertainty shocks shows that global financial uncertainty shocks are more important than non-financial shocks.
Global Trends 2040
Global Trends 2040 - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook Global Trends 2040 write by National Intelligence Council. This book was released on 2021-03. Global Trends 2040 available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. "The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.
