Efficient Estimation of Forecast Uncertainty Based on Recent Forecast Errors - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook Efficient Estimation of Forecast Uncertainty Based on Recent Forecast Errors write by Malte Knüppel. This book was released on 2009. Efficient Estimation of Forecast Uncertainty Based on Recent Forecast Errors available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle.
Business Forecasting
Business Forecasting - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook Business Forecasting write by Michael Gilliland. This book was released on 2016-01-05. Business Forecasting available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. A comprehensive collection of the field's most provocative, influential new work Business Forecasting compiles some of the field's important and influential literature into a single, comprehensive reference for forecast modeling and process improvement. It is packed with provocative ideas from forecasting researchers and practitioners, on topics including accuracy metrics, benchmarking, modeling of problem data, and overcoming dysfunctional behaviors. Its coverage includes often-overlooked issues at the forefront of research, such as uncertainty, randomness, and forecastability, as well as emerging areas like data mining for forecasting. The articles present critical analysis of current practices and consideration of new ideas. With a mix of formal, rigorous pieces and brief introductory chapters, the book provides practitioners with a comprehensive examination of the current state of the business forecasting field. Forecasting performance is ultimately limited by the 'forecastability' of the data. Yet failing to recognize this, many organizations continue to squander resources pursuing unachievable levels of accuracy. This book provides a wealth of ideas for improving all aspects of the process, including the avoidance of wasted efforts that fail to improve (or even harm) forecast accuracy. Analyzes the most prominent issues in business forecasting Investigates emerging approaches and new methods of analysis Combines forecasts to improve accuracy Utilizes Forecast Value Added to identify process inefficiency The business environment is evolving, and forecasting methods must evolve alongside it. This compilation delivers an array of new tools and research that can enable more efficient processes and more accurate results. Business Forecasting provides an expert's-eye view of the field's latest developments to help you achieve your desired business outcomes.
Forecast-Error-Based Estimation of Forecast Uncertainty When the Horizon is Increased
Forecast-Error-Based Estimation of Forecast Uncertainty When the Horizon is Increased - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook Forecast-Error-Based Estimation of Forecast Uncertainty When the Horizon is Increased write by Malte Knüppel. This book was released on 2016. Forecast-Error-Based Estimation of Forecast Uncertainty When the Horizon is Increased available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Recently, several institutions have increased their forecast horizons, and many institutions rely on their past forecast errors to estimate measures of forecast uncertainty. This work addresses the question how the latter estimation can be accomplished if there are only very few errors available for the new forecast horizons. It extends upon the results of Knüppel (2014) in order to relax the condition on the data structure required for the SUR estimator to be independent from unknown quantities. It turns out that the SUR estimator of forecast uncertainty tends to deliver large e¢ ciency gains compared to the OLS estimator (i.e. the sample mean of the squared forecast errors) in the case of increased forecast horizons. The SUR estimator is applied to the forecast errors of the Bank of England and the FOMC.
A Simple Forecasting Accuracy Criterion Under Rational Expectations
A Simple Forecasting Accuracy Criterion Under Rational Expectations - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook A Simple Forecasting Accuracy Criterion Under Rational Expectations write by Mr.José M. Barrionuevo. This book was released on 1992-06-01. A Simple Forecasting Accuracy Criterion Under Rational Expectations available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. A simple criterion based on the properties of the forecast error is presented to evaluate the accuracy of forecasts. The efficiency conditions of an optimization problem are used to show that under rational expectations the standard statistical conditions are necessary, but not sufficient to ensure efficiency. This criterion is used to examine the accuracy of the World Economic Outlook projections of growth and inflation for the seven major industrial countries. Time series models are then estimated and the efficiency of the World Economic Outlook projections relative to a benchmark time series model is examined. A number of empirical tests suggest that the year ahead projections of growth and inflation in the World Economic Outlook are unbiased after 1982.
Forecasting: principles and practice
Forecasting: principles and practice - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook Forecasting: principles and practice write by Rob J Hyndman. This book was released on 2018-05-08. Forecasting: principles and practice available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Forecasting is required in many situations. Stocking an inventory may require forecasts of demand months in advance. Telecommunication routing requires traffic forecasts a few minutes ahead. Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. This textbook provides a comprehensive introduction to forecasting methods and presents enough information about each method for readers to use them sensibly.
