Elicitation of Expert Opinions for Uncertainty and Risks - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook Elicitation of Expert Opinions for Uncertainty and Risks write by Bilal M. Ayyub. This book was released on 2001-06-27. Elicitation of Expert Opinions for Uncertainty and Risks available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Experts, despite their importance and value, can be double-edged swords. They can make valuable contributions from their deep base of knowledge, but those contributions may also contain their own biases and pet theories. Therefore, selecting experts, eliciting their opinions, and aggregating their opinions must be performed and handled carefully, with full recognition of the uncertainties inherent in those opinions. Elicitation of Expert Opinions for Uncertainty and Risks illuminates those uncertainties and builds a foundation of philosophy, background, methods, and guidelines that helps its readers effectively execute the elicitation process. Based on the first-hand experiences of the author, the book is filled with illustrations, examples, case studies, and applications that demonstrate not only the methods and successes of expert opinion elicitation, but also its pitfalls and failures. Studies show that in the future, analysts, engineers, and scientists will need to solve ever more complex problems and reach decisions with limited resources. This will lead to an increased reliance on the proper treatment of uncertainty and on the use of expert opinions. Elicitation of Expert Opinions for Uncertainty and Risks will help prepare you to better understand knowledge and ignorance, to successfully elicit expert opinions, to select appropriate expressions of those opinions, and to use various methods to model and aggregate opinions.
Elicitation of Expert Opinions for Uncertainty and Risks
Elicitation of Expert Opinions for Uncertainty and Risks - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook Elicitation of Expert Opinions for Uncertainty and Risks write by Bilal M. Ayyub. This book was released on 2001-06-27. Elicitation of Expert Opinions for Uncertainty and Risks available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Experts, despite their importance and value, can be double-edged swords. They can make valuable contributions from their deep base of knowledge, but those contributions may also contain their own biases and pet theories. Therefore, selecting experts, eliciting their opinions, and aggregating their opinions must be performed and handled carefully, w
Experts in Uncertainty
Experts in Uncertainty - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook Experts in Uncertainty write by Roger M. Cooke. This book was released on 1991-10-24. Experts in Uncertainty available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. This book is an extensive survey and critical examination of the literature on the use of expert opinion in scientific inquiry and policy making. The elicitation, representation, and use of expert opinion is increasingly important for two reasons: advancing technology leads to more and more complex decision problems, and technologists are turning in greater numbers to "expert systems" and other similar artifacts of artificial intelligence. Cooke here considers how expert opinion is being used today, how an expert's uncertainty is or should be represented, how people do or should reason with uncertainty, how the quality and usefulness of expert opinion can be assessed, and how the views of several experts might be combined. He argues for the importance of developing practical models with a transparent mathematic foundation for the use of expert opinion in science, and presents three tested models, termed "classical," "Bayesian," and "psychological scaling." Detailed case studies illustrate how they can be applied to a diversity of real problems in engineering and planning.
Uncertain Judgements
Uncertain Judgements - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook Uncertain Judgements write by Anthony O'Hagan. This book was released on 2006-08-30. Uncertain Judgements available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Elicitation is the process of extracting expert knowledge about some unknown quantity or quantities, and formulating that information as a probability distribution. Elicitation is important in situations, such as modelling the safety of nuclear installations or assessing the risk of terrorist attacks, where expert knowledge is essentially the only source of good information. It also plays a major role in other contexts by augmenting scarce observational data, through the use of Bayesian statistical methods. However, elicitation is not a simple task, and practitioners need to be aware of a wide range of research findings in order to elicit expert judgements accurately and reliably. Uncertain Judgements introduces the area, before guiding the reader through the study of appropriate elicitation methods, illustrated by a variety of multi-disciplinary examples. This is achieved by: Presenting a methodological framework for the elicitation of expert knowledge incorporating findings from both statistical and psychological research. Detailing techniques for the elicitation of a wide range of standard distributions, appropriate to the most common types of quantities. Providing a comprehensive review of the available literature and pointing to the best practice methods and future research needs. Using examples from many disciplines, including statistics, psychology, engineering and health sciences. Including an extensive glossary of statistical and psychological terms. An ideal source and guide for statisticians and psychologists with interests in expert judgement or practical applications of Bayesian analysis, Uncertain Judgements will also benefit decision-makers, risk analysts, engineers and researchers in the medical and social sciences.
Eliciting and Analyzing Expert Judgment
Eliciting and Analyzing Expert Judgment - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook Eliciting and Analyzing Expert Judgment write by Mary A. Meyer. This book was released on 2001-01-01. Eliciting and Analyzing Expert Judgment available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Expert judgment is invaluable for assessing products, systems, and situations for which measurements or test results are sparse or nonexistent. Eliciting and Analyzing Expert Judgment: A Practical Guide takes the reader step by step through the techniques of eliciting and analyzing expert judgment, with special attention given to helping the reader develop elicitation methods and tools adaptable to a variety of unique situations and work areas. The analysis procedures presented in the book may require a basic understanding of statistics and probabilities, but the authors have provided detailed explanations of the techniques used and have taken special care to define all statistical jargon. Originally published in 1991, this book is designed so that those familiar with the use of expert judgment can quickly find the material appropriate for their advanced background.
