Forecast Errors and Uncertainty Shocks - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook Forecast Errors and Uncertainty Shocks write by Sylwia Nowak. This book was released on 2016-11-17. Forecast Errors and Uncertainty Shocks available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Macroeconomic forecasts are persistently too optimistic. This paper finds that common factors related to general uncertainty about U.S. macrofinancial prospects and global demand drive this overoptimism. These common factors matter most for advanced economies and G- 20 countries. The results suggest that an increase in uncertainty-driven overoptimism has dampening effects on next-year real GDP growth rates. This implies that incorporating the common structure governing forecast errors across countries can help improve subsequent forecasts.
Forecasting Demand and Supply of Doctoral Scientists and Engineers
Forecasting Demand and Supply of Doctoral Scientists and Engineers - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook Forecasting Demand and Supply of Doctoral Scientists and Engineers write by National Research Council. This book was released on 2000-07-31. Forecasting Demand and Supply of Doctoral Scientists and Engineers available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. This report is the summary of a workshop conducted by the National Research Council in order to learn from both forecast makers and forecast users about improvements that can be made in understanding the markets for doctoral scientists and engineers. The workshop commissioned papers examined (1) the history and problems with models of demand and supply for scientists and engineers, (2) objectives and approaches to forecasting models, (3) margins of adjustment that have been neglected in models, especially substitution and quality, (4) the presentation of uncertainty, and (5) whether these forecasts of supply and demand are worthwhile, given all their shortcomings. The focus of the report was to provide guidance to the NSF and to scholars in this area on how models and the forecasts derived from them might be improved, and what role NSF should play in their improvement. In addition, the report examined issues of reporting forecasts to policymakers.
Efficient Estimation of Forecast Uncertainty Based on Recent Forecast Errors
Efficient Estimation of Forecast Uncertainty Based on Recent Forecast Errors - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook Efficient Estimation of Forecast Uncertainty Based on Recent Forecast Errors write by Malte Knüppel. This book was released on 2009. Efficient Estimation of Forecast Uncertainty Based on Recent Forecast Errors available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle.
Predictable Uncertainty in Economic Forecasting
Predictable Uncertainty in Economic Forecasting - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook Predictable Uncertainty in Economic Forecasting write by Neil R. Ericsson. This book was released on 2000. Predictable Uncertainty in Economic Forecasting available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. This paper provides an introduction to predictable forecast uncertainty in empirical economic modelling. The sources of both predictable and unpredictable forecast uncertainty are categorized. Key features of predictable forecast uncertainty are illustrated by several analytical models, including static and dynamic models, and single-equation and multiple-equation models. Empirical models of the U.S. trade account, U.K. inflation, and U.K. real national income help clarify the issues involved.
Forecasts in Times of Crises
Forecasts in Times of Crises - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook Forecasts in Times of Crises write by Theo S. Eicher. This book was released on 2018-03-09. Forecasts in Times of Crises available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Financial crises pose unique challenges for forecast accuracy. Using the IMF’s Monitoring of Fund Arrangement (MONA) database, we conduct the most comprehensive evaluation of IMF forecasts to date for countries in times of crises. We examine 29 macroeconomic variables in terms of bias, efficiency, and information content to find that IMF forecasts add substantial informational value as they consistently outperform naive forecast approaches. However, we also document that there is room for improvement: two thirds of the key macroeconomic variables that we examine are forecast inefficiently and 6 variables (growth of nominal GDP, public investment, private investment, the current account, net transfers, and government expenditures) exhibit significant forecast bias. Forecasts for low-income countries are the main drivers of forecast bias and inefficiency, reflecting perhaps larger shocks and lower data quality. When we decompose the forecast errors into their sources, we find that forecast errors for private consumption growth are the key contributor to GDP growth forecast errors. Similarly, forecast errors for non-interest expenditure growth and tax revenue growth are crucial determinants of the forecast errors in the growth of fiscal budgets. Forecast errors for balance of payments growth are significantly influenced by forecast errors in goods import growth. The results highlight which macroeconomic aggregates require further attention in future forecast models for countries in crises.
