Evaluating GDP Forecasting Models for Korea - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook Evaluating GDP Forecasting Models for Korea write by Mr.Li Zeng. This book was released on 2011-03-01. Evaluating GDP Forecasting Models for Korea available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. This paper develops a new forecasting framework for GDP growth in Korea to complement and further enhance existing forecasting approaches. First, a range of forecast models, including indicator- and pure time-series models, are evaluated for their forecasting performance. Based on the evaluation results, a new forecasting framework is developed for GDP projections. The framework also generates a data-driven reference band for the projections, and is therefore convenient to update. The framework is applied to the current World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecast period and the Great Recession to compare its performance to past projections. Results show that the performance of the new framework often improves the forecasts, especially at quarterly frequency, and the forecasting exercise will be better informed by cross-checking with the new data-driven framework projections.
A Dynamic Use Of Survey Data And High Frequency Model Forecasting
A Dynamic Use Of Survey Data And High Frequency Model Forecasting - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook A Dynamic Use Of Survey Data And High Frequency Model Forecasting write by Yoshihisa Inada. This book was released on 2018-03-08. A Dynamic Use Of Survey Data And High Frequency Model Forecasting available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. This volume investigates the accuracy and dynamic performance of a high-frequency forecast model for the Japanese and United States economies based on the Current Quarter Model (CQM) or High Frequency Model (HFM) developed by the late Professor Emeritus Lawrence R. Klein. It also presents a survey of recent developments in high-frequency forecasts and gives an example application of the CQM model in forecasting Gross Regional Products (GRPs).
Economic Forecasting: The State of the Art
Economic Forecasting: The State of the Art - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook Economic Forecasting: The State of the Art write by Elia Xacapyr. This book was released on 2016-09-16. Economic Forecasting: The State of the Art available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. An overview of the macroeconomic forecasting industry in the United States that explains and evaluates the forecasting techniques used to make predictions about various aspects of the national economy.
The Making of National Economic Forecasts
The Making of National Economic Forecasts - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook The Making of National Economic Forecasts write by Lawrence Robert Klein. This book was released on 2009-01-01. The Making of National Economic Forecasts available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. In this valuable volume, Nobel Prize-winner Klein gathers together a group of authors who focus on forecasting models for a number of economies. The variety of the models and the structural differences among them are especially interesting. . . Readers interested in forecasting methodologies will find much of value in this volume. Highly recommended. I. Walter, Choice This important book, prepared under the direction of Nobel Laureate Lawrence R. Klein, shows how economic forecasts are made. It explains how modern developments in information technology have made it possible to forecast frequently at least monthly but also weekly or bi-weekly depending upon the perceived needs of potential forecast users and also on the availability of updated material. The book focuses on forecasts in a diverse range of economies including the United States, China, India, Russia, Germany, Japan, South Korea, and Turkey. At a time of great economic uncertainty, this book makes an important contribution by showing how new information technology can be used to prepare national economic forecasts.
Overfitting in Judgment-based Economic Forecasts: The Case of IMF Growth Projections
Overfitting in Judgment-based Economic Forecasts: The Case of IMF Growth Projections - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook Overfitting in Judgment-based Economic Forecasts: The Case of IMF Growth Projections write by Klaus-Peter Hellwig. This book was released on 2018-12-07. Overfitting in Judgment-based Economic Forecasts: The Case of IMF Growth Projections available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. I regress real GDP growth rates on the IMF’s growth forecasts and find that IMF forecasts behave similarly to those generated by overfitted models, placing too much weight on observable predictors and underestimating the forces of mean reversion. I identify several such variables that explain forecasts well but are not predictors of actual growth. I show that, at long horizons, IMF forecasts are little better than a forecasting rule that uses no information other than the historical global sample average growth rate (i.e., a constant). Given the large noise component in forecasts, particularly at longer horizons, the paper calls into question the usefulness of judgment-based medium and long-run forecasts for policy analysis, including for debt sustainability assessments, and points to statistical methods to improve forecast accuracy by taking into account the risk of overfitting.
