Superforecasting - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook Superforecasting write by Philip E. Tetlock. This book was released on 2015-09-29. Superforecasting available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST “The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.
Good Judgment
Good Judgment - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook Good Judgment write by Robert J. Sharpe. This book was released on 2018-10-11. Good Judgment available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Good Judgment, based upon the author's experience as a lawyer, law professor, and judge, explores the role of the judge and the art of judging. Engaging with the American, English, and Commonwealth literature on the role of the judge in the common law tradition, Good Judgment addresses the following questions: What exactly do judges do? What is properly within their role and what falls outside? How do judges approach their decision-making task? In an attempt to explain and reconcile two fundamental features of judging, namely judicial choice and judicial discipline, this book explores the nature and extent of judicial choice in the common law legal tradition and the structural features of that tradition that control and constrain that element of choice. As Sharpe explains, the law does not always provide clear answers, and judges are often left with difficult choices to make, but the power of judicial choice is disciplined and constrained and judges are not free to decide cases according to their own personal sense of justice. Although Good Judgment is accessibly written to appeal to the non-specialist reader with an interest in the judicial process, it also tackles fundamental issues about the nature of law and the role of the judge and will be of particular interest to lawyers, judges, law students, and legal academics.
Good Judgment
Good Judgment - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook Good Judgment write by Urška Šadl. This book was released on 2024-08-22. Good Judgment available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Courts are context-conscious. They solve legal disputes with societal impact in mind, using interpretive tools and procedural means. This book develops concepts and methods for a systematic and legally informative analysis of this complex process. The evidence delivered prompts a conversation about the authority courts have to change the law. The analysis focuses on the European Court of Justice and its free movement case law. The framework and theory, however, are relevant to courts and case law everywhere. This is a compelling and intriguing examination of the ECJ and its shaping of a key tenet of EU law.
Good Judgment in Foreign Policy
Good Judgment in Foreign Policy - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook Good Judgment in Foreign Policy write by Stanley Allen Renshon. This book was released on 2003. Good Judgment in Foreign Policy available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. At the heart of political leadership lies choice. And at the heart of choice lies judgment. A leader's psychology and experience intersect with political realities to produce consequences that can make or break a leader--or a country. Nowhere is judgment more important than in the making of foreign policy. Good judgments can avoid wars, or win them. Poor judgments can start wars or lose them. This book draws together a distinguished group of contributors--psychologists, political scientists, and policymakers--to focus on and understand both good and poor judgment in foreign policy making. Case studies of key leadership decisions combine with theoretical overviews and analyses to offer a highly textured portrait of judgment in action in the all-important foreign policy arena. An up-to-the-minute case on George W. Bush and the war on terrorism applies good judgment theory to contemporary events.
Would it be Right?
Would it be Right? - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook Would it be Right? write by Regina G. Burch. This book was released on 2002. Would it be Right? available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Learn about honesty and using good judgement.
