Modelling Uncertainty in Flood Forecasting Systems - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook Modelling Uncertainty in Flood Forecasting Systems write by Shreeda Maskey. This book was released on 2004-11-23. Modelling Uncertainty in Flood Forecasting Systems available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Like all natural hazards, flooding is a complex and inherently uncertain phenomenon. Despite advances in developing flood forecasting models and techniques, the uncertainty in forecasts remains unavoidable. This uncertainty needs to be acknowledged, and uncertainty estimation in flood forecasting provides a rational basis for risk-based criteria. This book presents the development and applications of various methods based on probablity and fuzzy set theories for modelling uncertainty in flood forecasting systems. In particular, it presents a methodology for uncertainty assessment using disaggregation of time series inputs in the framework of both the Monte Carlo method and the Fuzzy Extention Principle. It reports an improvement in the First Order Second Moment method, using second degree reconstruction, and derives qualitative scales for the interpretation of qualitative uncertainty. Application is to flood forecasting models for the Klodzko catchment in POland and the Loire River in France. Prospects for the hybrid techniques of uncertainty modelling and probability-possibility transformations are also explored and reported.
Modelling Uncertainty in Flood Forecasting Systems
Modelling Uncertainty in Flood Forecasting Systems - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook Modelling Uncertainty in Flood Forecasting Systems write by Shreedhar Maskey. This book was released on 2004. Modelling Uncertainty in Flood Forecasting Systems available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle.
Navigating Comprehensive School Change
Navigating Comprehensive School Change - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook Navigating Comprehensive School Change write by Robert Everhart. This book was released on 2017-08-21. Navigating Comprehensive School Change available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. This book, an accessible resource for busy practitioners, is a unique hybrid of two genres. As a "tourist guide", it shows you:- how to prepare for the journey- what to pay attention to upon arrival- how to deal with the unexpected.As a "consumer report", it helps you:- identify some of the best tools and sources about change- access useful information about the change process- find information about the strengths and challenges of various strategies.Thorough and comprehensive, it offers essential information about how to:- form leadership teams- identify high stakes problems- build commitment- create a school-wide vision and establish school-wide goals - handle setbacks- maintain the vision and sustain change. - evaluate and assess comprehensive school change.Also included is a section called "Ports of Call" which provides sources of information to help you implement comprehensive school reform at your site. From Michael Fullan's Foreword . . ."Chenoweth and Everhart take the big concepts of change and work them through operationally at the level of day-to-day practice. We learn how to form leadership teams, the importance of focusing on capacity-building and reculturing, how to build commitment while dealing with dissatisfaction, problem-solving during implementation, how to keep going, and how to go beyond standardized testing in developing a range of alternative assessment strategies.
Applied Uncertainty Analysis For Flood Risk Management
Applied Uncertainty Analysis For Flood Risk Management - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook Applied Uncertainty Analysis For Flood Risk Management write by Keith J Beven. This book was released on 2014-01-13. Applied Uncertainty Analysis For Flood Risk Management available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. This volume provides an introduction for flood risk management practitioners, up-to-date methods for analysis of uncertainty and its use in risk-based decision making. It addresses decision making for both short-term (real-time forecasting) and long-term (flood risk planning under change) situations. It aims primarily at technical practitioners involved in flood risk analysis and flood warning, including hydrologists, engineers, flood modelers, risk analysts and those involved in the design and operation of flood warning systems. Many experienced practitioners are now expected to modify their way of working to fit into the new philosophy of flood risk management. This volume helps them to undertake that task with appropriate attention to the surrounding uncertainties. The book will also interest and benefit researchers and graduate students hoping to improve their knowledge of modern uncertainty analysis.
Flood Forecasting Using Machine Learning Methods
Flood Forecasting Using Machine Learning Methods - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook Flood Forecasting Using Machine Learning Methods write by Fi-John Chang. This book was released on 2019-02-28. Flood Forecasting Using Machine Learning Methods available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Nowadays, the degree and scale of flood hazards has been massively increasing as a result of the changing climate, and large-scale floods jeopardize lives and properties, causing great economic losses, in the inundation-prone areas of the world. Early flood warning systems are promising countermeasures against flood hazards and losses. A collaborative assessment according to multiple disciplines, comprising hydrology, remote sensing, and meteorology, of the magnitude and impacts of flood hazards on inundation areas significantly contributes to model the integrity and precision of flood forecasting. Methodologically oriented countermeasures against flood hazards may involve the forecasting of reservoir inflows, river flows, tropical cyclone tracks, and flooding at different lead times and/or scales. Analyses of impacts, risks, uncertainty, resilience, and scenarios coupled with policy-oriented suggestions will give information for flood hazard mitigation. Emerging advances in computing technologies coupled with big-data mining have boosted data-driven applications, among which Machine Learning technology, with its flexibility and scalability in pattern extraction, has modernized not only scientific thinking but also predictive applications. This book explores recent Machine Learning advances on flood forecast and management in a timely manner and presents interdisciplinary approaches to modelling the complexity of flood hazards-related issues, with contributions to integrative solutions from a local, regional or global perspective.
