Oil Price Uncertainty - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook Oil Price Uncertainty write by Apostolos Serletis. This book was released on 2012. Oil Price Uncertainty available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. The relationship between the price of oil and the level of economic activity is a fundamental issue in macroeconomics. There is an ongoing debate in the literature about whether positive oil price shocks cause recessions in the United States (and other oil-importing countries), and although there exists a vast empirical literature that investigates the effects of oil price shocks, there are relatively few studies that investigate the direct effects of uncertainty about oil prices on the real economy. The book uses recent advances in macroeconomics and financial economics to investigate the effects of oil price shocks and uncertainty about the price of oil on the level of economic activity.
Oil Price Uncertainty
Oil Price Uncertainty - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook Oil Price Uncertainty write by John Elder. This book was released on 2010. Oil Price Uncertainty available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. The theories of investment under uncertainty and real options predict that uncertainty about, for example, oil prices will tend to depress current investment. We reinvestigate the relationship between the price of oil and investment, focusing on the role of uncertainty about oil prices. We find that volatility in oil prices has had a negative and statistically significant effect on several measures of investment, durables consumption and aggregate output. We also find that accounting for the effects of oil price volatility tends to exacerbate the negative dynamic response of economic activity to a negative oil price shock, while dampening the response to a positive oil price shock.
Crude Volatility
Crude Volatility - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook Crude Volatility write by Robert McNally. This book was released on 2017-01-17. Crude Volatility available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. As OPEC has loosened its grip over the past ten years, the oil market has been rocked by wild price swings, the likes of which haven't been seen for eight decades. Crafting an engrossing journey from the gushing Pennsylvania oil fields of the 1860s to today's fraught and fractious Middle East, Crude Volatility explains how past periods of stability and volatility in oil prices help us understand the new boom-bust era. Oil's notorious volatility has always been considered a scourge afflicting not only the oil industry but also the broader economy and geopolitical landscape; Robert McNally makes sense of how oil became so central to our world and why it is subject to such extreme price fluctuations. Tracing a history marked by conflict, intrigue, and extreme uncertainty, McNally shows how—even from the oil industry's first years—wild and harmful price volatility prompted industry leaders and officials to undertake extraordinary efforts to stabilize oil prices by controlling production. Herculean market interventions—first, by Rockefeller's Standard Oil, then, by U.S. state regulators in partnership with major international oil companies, and, finally, by OPEC—succeeded to varying degrees in taming the beast. McNally, a veteran oil market and policy expert, explains the consequences of the ebbing of OPEC's power, debunking myths and offering recommendations—including mistakes to avoid—as we confront the unwelcome return of boom and bust oil prices.
Oil Price Uncertainty Index
Oil Price Uncertainty Index - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook Oil Price Uncertainty Index write by Yosef Bonaparte. This book was released on 2015. Oil Price Uncertainty Index available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. We develop a new oil price uncertainty index (OPUX) based on newspaper and social networking coverage. Our index improves on the existing oil ETF volatility index (OVX) because financial markets are inefficient insofar as prices do not reflect all information (Shiller, 1981). Several pieces of evidence, including a media audit of 14,233 newspaper articles and 502 tweets, indicate that our OPUX predicts changes in the uncertainty of oil prices. Specifically, our results demonstrate that the OPUX improves ability to predict oil price volatility (the standard deviation of daily prices for a given month) between 24% and 30%. The intuition behind our results is that the existing OVX is fairly smooth, whereas actual oil price volatility shows considerably more fluctuation in step with media coverage (see Figure 1, Panels A, B and C). Collectively, newspaper and social media coverage are powerful predictors of future volatility in the oil market.
Global Implications of Lower Oil Prices
Global Implications of Lower Oil Prices - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook Global Implications of Lower Oil Prices write by Mr.Aasim M. Husain. This book was released on 2015-07-14. Global Implications of Lower Oil Prices available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. The sharp drop in oil prices is one of the most important global economic developments over the past year. The SDN finds that (i) supply factors have played a somewhat larger role than demand factors in driving the oil price drop, (ii) a substantial part of the price decline is expected to persist into the medium term, although there is large uncertainty, (iii) lower oil prices will support global growth, (iv) the sharp oil price drop could still trigger financial strains, and (v) policy responses should depend on the terms-of-trade impact, fiscal and external vulnerabilities, and domestic cyclical position.
