Optimism, Pessimism, and Short-Term Fluctuations - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook Optimism, Pessimism, and Short-Term Fluctuations write by Gabriel Di Bella. This book was released on 2018-01-05. Optimism, Pessimism, and Short-Term Fluctuations available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Economic theory offers several explanations as to why shifting expectations about future economic activity affect current demand. Abstracting from whether changes in expectations originate from swings in beliefs or fundamentals, we test empirically whether more optimistic or pessimistic potential output forecasts trigger short-term fluctuations in private consumption and investment. Relying on a dataset of actual data and forecasts for 89 countries over the 1990-2022 period, we find that private economic agents learn from different sources of in- formation about future potential output growth, and adjust their current demand accordingly over the two years following the shock in expectations. To provide a theoretical foundation to the empirical analysis, we also propose a simple Keynesian model that highlights the role of expectations about long-term output in determining short-term economic activity.
Optimism, Pessimism, and Short-Term Fluctuations
Optimism, Pessimism, and Short-Term Fluctuations - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook Optimism, Pessimism, and Short-Term Fluctuations write by Gabriel Di Bella. This book was released on 2018-01-05. Optimism, Pessimism, and Short-Term Fluctuations available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Economic theory offers several explanations as to why shifting expectations about future economic activity affect current demand. Abstracting from whether changes in expectations originate from swings in beliefs or fundamentals, we test empirically whether more optimistic or pessimistic potential output forecasts trigger short-term fluctuations in private consumption and investment. Relying on a dataset of actual data and forecasts for 89 countries over the 1990-2022 period, we find that private economic agents learn from different sources of in- formation about future potential output growth, and adjust their current demand accordingly over the two years following the shock in expectations. To provide a theoretical foundation to the empirical analysis, we also propose a simple Keynesian model that highlights the role of expectations about long-term output in determining short-term economic activity.
Growth Expectations, Undue Optimism, and Short-Run Fluctuations
Growth Expectations, Undue Optimism, and Short-Run Fluctuations - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook Growth Expectations, Undue Optimism, and Short-Run Fluctuations write by Zeno Enders. This book was released on 2017. Growth Expectations, Undue Optimism, and Short-Run Fluctuations available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. We assess whether "undue optimism" (Pigou) contributes to business cycle fluctuations. In our analysis, optimism (or pessimism) pertains to total factor productivity which determines economic activity in the long run. Optimism shocks are perceived changes in productivity which do not actually materialize. We develop a new strategy to identify optimism shocks in a VAR model. It is based on nowcast errors regarding current output growth, that is, the difference between actual growth and the real-time prediction of professional forecasters. We find that optimism shocks - in line with theory - generate a negative nowcast error, but simultaneously a positive short-run output response.
Economics of Pessimism and Optimism
Economics of Pessimism and Optimism - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook Economics of Pessimism and Optimism write by Kiyohiko G. Nishimura. This book was released on 2017-11-13. Economics of Pessimism and Optimism available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. This is the first book to investigate individual’s pessimistic and optimistic prospects for the future and their economic consequences based on sound mathematical foundations. The book focuses on fundamental uncertainty called Knightian uncertainty, where the probability distribution governing uncertainty is unknown, and it provides the reader with methods to formulate how pessimism and optimism act in an economy in a strict and unified way. After presenting decision-theoretic foundations for prudent behaviors under Knightian uncertainty, the book applies these ideas to economic models that include portfolio inertia, indeterminacy of equilibria in the Arrow-Debreu economy and in a stochastic overlapping-generations economy, learning, dynamic asset-pricing models, search, real options, and liquidity preferences. The book then proceeds to characterizations of pessimistic (ε-contaminated) and optimistic (ε-exuberant) behaviors under Knightian uncertainty and people’s inherent pessimism (surprise aversion) and optimism (surprise loving). Those characterizations are shown to be useful in understanding several observed behaviors in the global financial crisis and in its aftermath. The book is highly recommended not only to researchers who wish to understand the mechanism of how pessimism and optimism affect economic phenomena, but also to policy makers contemplating effective economic policies whose success delicately hinges upon people’s mindsets in the market. Kiyohiko Nishimura is Professor at the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS) and Professor Emeritus and Distinguished Project Research Fellow of the Center for Advanced Research in Finance at The University of Tokyo. Hiroyuki Ozaki is Professor of Economics at Keio University.
Identifying the Developmental Origins and Predictors of Variability in Dispositional Optimism
Identifying the Developmental Origins and Predictors of Variability in Dispositional Optimism - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook Identifying the Developmental Origins and Predictors of Variability in Dispositional Optimism write by Jesse Renaud. This book was released on 2020. Identifying the Developmental Origins and Predictors of Variability in Dispositional Optimism available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Dispositional optimism is a personality trait that reflects the generalized expectancy that positive, as opposed to negative, outcomes will occur in the future across a variety of domains (Carver & Scheier, 1985). Although numerous studies have demonstrated that dispositional optimism predicts greater well-being across the lifespan (Mens, Scheier, & Carver, 2016; Scheier, & Carver, 2018), a paucity of research has examined whether individuals' levels of optimism fluctuate over time or the psychological factors that contribute to its development. Therefore, the aims of the research presented herein are to identify the developmental antecedents of dispositional optimism, whether levels of dispositional optimism change over time, and predictors of those fluctuations during periods of transition. This dissertation was conducted to address these gaps in the empirical literature on dispositional optimism. To examine these research questions, the results from two longitudinal prospective studies will be presented. Study 1 examines the role of early environmental experiences in childhood for predicting the development of optimism during the transition to early adulthood. The results from Study 1 show that greater maternal attachment security in childhood promoted greater optimism during the transition from late adolescence into early adulthood via higher levels of perceived internal locus of control. In addition, greater optimism contributed to higher levels of psychological well-being. Study 2 explores the extent to which dispositional optimism and its two subscales (optimism and pessimism) fluctuate over time in early adulthood, and whether individual differences in coping may predict those fluctuations. The results from Study 2 document that dispositional optimism and pessimism continue to undergo both short and long-term fluctuations during early adulthood. Moreover, these changes in optimism and pessimism are promoted by individual differences in the engagement in adaptive and maladaptive coping with contextual demands. Together, the findings from this research have important implications for enhancing our understanding of the precursors to the development of, and predictors of fluctuations in, dispositional optimism and psychological well-being. This knowledge provides a novel contribution to the specific literature on dispositional optimism, as well as the broader literature on predictors of personality development. Furthermore, this research demonstrates the importance of examining the development of personality traits, and optimism in particular, using a lifespan perspective.
