Public Debt Sustainability Under Uncertainty - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook Public Debt Sustainability Under Uncertainty write by Rossen Rozenov. This book was released on 2017-03-13. Public Debt Sustainability Under Uncertainty available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. The paper offers an approach to assessing the sustainability of public debt taking into account the effect of fiscal policy on output, as well as uncertainty in the model parameters and system dynamics. Uncertainty is specified in general terms, and the analysis is based on the notion of invariant sets. Examples are provided to illustrate how the method can be applied in practice.
Probabilistic Sustainability of Public Debt
Probabilistic Sustainability of Public Debt - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook Probabilistic Sustainability of Public Debt write by Issouf Samaké. This book was released on 2006-12-01. Probabilistic Sustainability of Public Debt available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. This paper examines the sustainability of fiscal policy under uncertainty in three emerging market countries, Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey. For each country, we estimate a vector autoregression (VAR) that includes fiscal and macroeconomic variables. Retrospectively, a historical decomposition shows by how much debt accumulation reflects unsustainable policy, adverse shocks, or both. Prospectively, Monte Carlo techniques reveal the primary surplus that is required to keep the debt/GDP ratio from rising in all but the worst 50 percent, 25 percent, and 10 percent of circumstances. Such a value-at-risk approach presents a clearer menu of policy options than currently used frameworks.
Quantifying the Sustainability of Public Debt
Quantifying the Sustainability of Public Debt - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook Quantifying the Sustainability of Public Debt write by Cansın Kemal Can. This book was released on 2021-06-09. Quantifying the Sustainability of Public Debt available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Despite its beneficial aspects, public debt can be hazardous for macroeconomic performance should it reach unrepayable levels as a consequence of snowballing explosive trends. Failure to monitor the existing trend in public debt in order to detect such divergences from the stable path, and the lack of an adaptive public financial management can potentially culminate in a public debt crisis whose disruptive economic impacts can permeate all sectors of the economy very swiftly. However, public debt sustainability is a vague concept with no straightforward operational definitions. In addition, its multi-faceted nature is an impediment for the implementation of real-world appraisal of the fiscal posture from a stability viewpoint. As such, quantifying the public debt sustainability is essential for overhauling the fiscal policies so as to avoid a potential debt crisis stemming from malfunctioning fiscal policies. This book provides the reader with a practical and straightforward framework that outlines a tool for undertaking public debt sustainability analysis. In order to guide further empirical investigations, the discussion in this book is underpinned by a real-world application of the model which highlights the practical aspects of the tool with reference to time-varying empirical evidence from a developing country.
A Risk-Based Debt Sustainability Framework
A Risk-Based Debt Sustainability Framework - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook A Risk-Based Debt Sustainability Framework write by Ms.Elena Loukoianova. This book was released on 2008-02-01. A Risk-Based Debt Sustainability Framework available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. This paper proposes a new framework for the analysis of public sector debt sustainability. The framework uses concepts and methods from modern practice of contingent claims to develop a quantitative risk-based model of sovereign credit risk. The motivation in developing this framework is to provide a clear and workable complement to traditional debt sustainability analysis which-although it has many useful applications-suffers from the inability to measure risk exposures, default probabilities and credit spreads. Importantly, this new framework can be adapted for policy analysis, including debt and reserve management.
Public Debt Sustainability in Developing Asia
Public Debt Sustainability in Developing Asia - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook Public Debt Sustainability in Developing Asia write by Benno Ferrarini. This book was released on 2012-11-12. Public Debt Sustainability in Developing Asia available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Addressing the Global Financial Crisis required fiscal intervention on a substantial scale by governments around the world. The consequent build up of public debt, in particular its sustainability, have moved centre stage in the policy debate. If the Asia Pacific region is to continue to serve as an engine for global growth its public debt must be sustainable. The book addresses this issue for Asia Pacific as a whole as well as for three of the most dynamic economies in the region: China, India and Vietnam. The book begins with a discussion of the reasons why there is increased attention on debt related issues and outline the contents of the volume. The book also includes fiscal indicators for Developing Member Countries (DMCs) as categorized by the Asian Development Bank (ADB). Debt sustainability for these countries is assessed through extant approaches and with the most updated data sources. It also surveys the extant literature on debt sustainability, outlining the main issues related to debt sustainability and discusses the key implications for the application of debt sustainability analysis in developing Asia. The book highlights the importance of doing individual country studies in view of wide variations in definitions of public expenditure, revenues, contingent liabilities, government structures (e.g. federal), and the like as well as in the impact of debt on interest rates. It provides in-depth debt sustainability analyses of China, India and Vietnam. The book is a comprehensive analytical and empirical update of the sustainability public debt in developing Asia. It breakes new ground in that various characteristics of the sustainability that have not yet been explored in the literature which, nevertheless, are crucial to understanding it. As a consequence, the policy analysis is based on firmer footings than in the extant literature and should prove useful to graduate students, researchers as well as policymakers.
