Repeated Use of IMF-Supported Programs: Determinants and Forecasting - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook Repeated Use of IMF-Supported Programs: Determinants and Forecasting write by Martin Iseringhausen. This book was released on 2019-11-08. Repeated Use of IMF-Supported Programs: Determinants and Forecasting available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. This paper studies the determinants of repeated use of Fund-supported programs in a large sample covering virtually all General Resources Account (GRA) arrangements that were approved between 1952 and 2012. Generally, the revolving nature of the IMF’s resources calls for the temporary sup-port of member countries to address balance of payments problems while repeated use has often been viewed as program failure. First, using probit models we show that a small number of country-specific variables such as growth, the current account balance, the international reserves position, and the institutional framework play a significant role in explaining repeated use. Second, we discuss the role of IMF-specific and program-specific variables and find evidence that a country’s track record with the Fund is a good predictor of repeated use. Finally, we conduct an out-of-sample forecasting exer-cise. While our approach has predictive power for repeated use, exact forecasting remains challenging. From a policy perspective, the results could prove useful to assess the risk IMF programs pose to the revolving nature of the Fund’s financial resources.
Repeated Use of IMF-Supported Programs: Determinants and Forecasting
Repeated Use of IMF-Supported Programs: Determinants and Forecasting - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook Repeated Use of IMF-Supported Programs: Determinants and Forecasting write by Martin Iseringhausen. This book was released on 2019-11-08. Repeated Use of IMF-Supported Programs: Determinants and Forecasting available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. This paper studies the determinants of repeated use of Fund-supported programs in a large sample covering virtually all General Resources Account (GRA) arrangements that were approved between 1952 and 2012. Generally, the revolving nature of the IMF’s resources calls for the temporary sup-port of member countries to address balance of payments problems while repeated use has often been viewed as program failure. First, using probit models we show that a small number of country-specific variables such as growth, the current account balance, the international reserves position, and the institutional framework play a significant role in explaining repeated use. Second, we discuss the role of IMF-specific and program-specific variables and find evidence that a country’s track record with the Fund is a good predictor of repeated use. Finally, we conduct an out-of-sample forecasting exer-cise. While our approach has predictive power for repeated use, exact forecasting remains challenging. From a policy perspective, the results could prove useful to assess the risk IMF programs pose to the revolving nature of the Fund’s financial resources.
IMF-Supported Programs
IMF-Supported Programs - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook IMF-Supported Programs write by Mr.Ashoka Mody. This book was released on 2006-04-03. IMF-Supported Programs available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Research work by the IMF’s staff on the effectiveness of the country programs the organization supports, which has long been carried out, has intensified in recent years. IMF analysts have sought to “open up the black box” by more closely examining program design and implementation, as well as how these influence programs’ effectiveness. Their efforts have also focused on identifying the lending, signaling, and monitoring features of the IMF that may affect member countries’ economic performance. This book reports on a large portion of both the new and the continuing research. It concludes that IMF programs work best where domestic politics and institutions permit the timely implementation of the necessary measures and when a country is vulnerable to, but not yet in, a crisis. It points to the need for a wider recognition of the substantial diversity among IMF member countries and for programs to be tailored accordingly while broadly maintaining the IMF’s general principle of uniformity of treatment.
Predicting IMF-Supported Programs: A Machine Learning Approach
Predicting IMF-Supported Programs: A Machine Learning Approach - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook Predicting IMF-Supported Programs: A Machine Learning Approach write by Tsendsuren Batsuuri. This book was released on 2024-03-08. Predicting IMF-Supported Programs: A Machine Learning Approach available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. This study applies state-of-the-art machine learning (ML) techniques to forecast IMF-supported programs, analyzes the ML prediction results relative to traditional econometric approaches, explores non-linear relationships among predictors indicative of IMF-supported programs, and evaluates model robustness with regard to different feature sets and time periods. ML models consistently outperform traditional methods in out-of-sample prediction of new IMF-supported arrangements with key predictors that align well with the literature and show consensus across different algorithms. The analysis underscores the importance of incorporating a variety of external, fiscal, real, and financial features as well as institutional factors like membership in regional financing arrangements. The findings also highlight the varying influence of data processing choices such as feature selection, sampling techniques, and missing data imputation on the performance of different ML models and therefore indicate the usefulness of a flexible, algorithm-tailored approach. Additionally, the results reveal that models that are most effective in near and medium-term predictions may tend to underperform over the long term, thus illustrating the need for regular updates or more stable – albeit potentially near-term suboptimal – models when frequent updates are impractical.
International Monetary Fund Annual Report 2021
International Monetary Fund Annual Report 2021 - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook International Monetary Fund Annual Report 2021 write by International Monetary Fund. Secretary's Department. This book was released on 2021-10-04. International Monetary Fund Annual Report 2021 available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. A recovery is underway, but the economic fallout from the global pandemic could be with us for years to come. With the crisis exacerbating prepandemic vulnerabilities, country prospects are diverging. Nearly half of emerging market and developing economies and some middle-income countries are now at risk of falling further behind, undoing much of the progress made toward achieving the UN Sustainable Development Goals.
