Spatio-temporal Modeling and Predictions of House Prices in San Jose - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook Spatio-temporal Modeling and Predictions of House Prices in San Jose write by Haoying Meng. This book was released on 2016. Spatio-temporal Modeling and Predictions of House Prices in San Jose available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. House prices are of interest to the general public and government agencies for many reasons. The complexity and practicality of house price modeling have attracted many researchers. In this dissertation, attempts are made to explore the dependence structure in time and space among houses using over 130 thousand house price observations in San Jose from 1991 to 2012. Innovative spline methods are utilized to build a forecasting model incorporating both hedonic, spatial and temporal information. The use of splines greatly reduces the number of variables needed in the model without sacrificing for precision. Moreover, the recession period (2008--2010) was given special care because it behaved differently from the rest of the 22 year time period. The model proposed in this dissertation uses both repeat sales and single sale transactions, and is able to produce an overall price index for the whole region, as well as predictions for individual houses. The final model, which includes an autoregressive spatio-temporal error term, is shown to have better predictive abilities than other competing methods in the literature.
A Spatio-Temporal Model of House Prices in the Us
A Spatio-Temporal Model of House Prices in the Us - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook A Spatio-Temporal Model of House Prices in the Us write by Sean Holly. This book was released on 2008. A Spatio-Temporal Model of House Prices in the Us available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. The purpose of this paper is to apply recent advances in the econometrics of panel data to a problem that has a clear spatial dimension. We model the dynamic adjustment of real house prices using data at the level of US States. In the last decade, in most OECD countries there has been a significant rise in real house prices. This attracted the attention of many international organisations and central banks. In this paper we consider interactions between housing markets by examining the extent to which real house prices at the State level are driven by fundamentals such as real income, as well as by common shocks, and determine the speed of adjustment of house prices to macroeconomic and local disturbances. We take explicit account of both cross sectional dependence and heterogeneity. This allows us to find a cointegrating relationship between house prices and incomes and to identify a small role for real interest rates. Using this model we then examine the role of spatial factors, in particular the effect of contiguous states by use of a weighting matrix. We are able to identify a significant spatial effect, even after controlling for State specific real incomes, and allowing for a number of unobserved common factors.
Modeling Spatial and Temporal House Price Patterns
Modeling Spatial and Temporal House Price Patterns - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook Modeling Spatial and Temporal House Price Patterns write by Mauricio Rodriguez. This book was released on 2004. Modeling Spatial and Temporal House Price Patterns available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. This research reports results from a competition on modeling spatial and temporal components of house prices. A large, well-documented database was prepared and made available to anyone wishing to join the competition. To prevent data snooping, out-of-sample observations were withheld; they were deposited with one individual who did not enter the competition, but had the responsibility of calculating out-of-sample statistics for results submitted by the others. The competition turned into a cooperative effort, resulting in enhancements to previous methods including: a localized version of Dubin's kriging model, a kriging version of Clapp's local regression model, and a local application of Case's earlier work on dividing a geographic housing market into districts. The results indicate the importance of nearest neighbor transactions for out-of-sample predictions: spatial trend analysis and census tract variables do not perform nearly as well as neighboring residuals.
Further Evidence on the Spatio-Temporal Model of House Prices in the United States
Further Evidence on the Spatio-Temporal Model of House Prices in the United States - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook Further Evidence on the Spatio-Temporal Model of House Prices in the United States write by Badi H. Baltagi. This book was released on 2016. Further Evidence on the Spatio-Temporal Model of House Prices in the United States available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Holly, Pesaran, and Yamagata (2010) use a panel of 49 states over the period of 1975 to 2003 to show that state-level real housing prices are driven by economic fundamentals, such as real per capita disposable income, as well as by common shocks, such as changes in interest rates, oil prices, and technological change. They apply the common correlated effects (CCE) estimator of Pesaran (2006) which takes into account spatial interactions that reflect both geographical proximity and unobserved common factors. This paper replicates their results using a panel of 381 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) observed over the period 1975 to 2011. Our replication shows that their results are fairly robust to the more geographically refined cross-section units, and to the updated period of study.
The Dynamics of Location in Home Price
The Dynamics of Location in Home Price - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook The Dynamics of Location in Home Price write by Alan E. Gelfand. This book was released on 2004. The Dynamics of Location in Home Price available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. It is well established that house prices are dynamic. It is also axiomatic that location influences such selling prices, motivating our objective of incorporating spatial information in explaining the evolution of house prices over time. In this paper, we propose a rich class of spatio-temporal models under which each property is point referenced and its associated selling price modeled through a collection of temporally indexed spatial processes. Such modeling includes and extends all house price index models currently in the literature, and furthermore permits distinction between the effects of time and the effects of location.We study single family residential sales in two distinct submarkets of a metropolitan area and further categorize the data into single-transaction and multiple-transaction observations. We find the spatial component is very important in explaining house price. Moreover, the relative homogeneity of homes within the submarket and the frequency with which homes sell affects the pattern of variation across space and time. Differences between single sale and repeat sale data are evident. The methodology is applicable to more general capital asset pricing when location is anticipated to be influential.
