The Art of Uncertainty: How to Navigate Chance, Ignorance, Risk and Luck - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook The Art of Uncertainty: How to Navigate Chance, Ignorance, Risk and Luck write by David Spiegelhalter. This book was released on 2025-03-04. The Art of Uncertainty: How to Navigate Chance, Ignorance, Risk and Luck available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. From our “greatest living statistical communicator” (Tim Harford) comes an invaluable, data-driven guide for understanding—and learning to embrace—risk and uncertainty in our daily lives. How dangerous is our diet? How much in sports comes down to luck? When authorities pronounce that a given event is “highly likely”—well, how likely is that, really? Our lives are riddled with risk and uncertainty, and renowned statistician David Spiegelhalter has spent his career crunching data to decode the seemingly random events that define our experiences, as well as the numerous decisions we each make in the face of imperfect knowledge. In The Art of Uncertainty, he illuminates how all of us can do this better. Revealing the principles of probability—a field that informs everything from annuities to pandemics and climate change—he shows how we can measure our confidence, better evaluate cause and effect, and update our beliefs about the future in the face of constantly changing experience. Drawing on fascinating real-world examples, this is an essential guide to navigating uncertainty in a world that makes it inevitable.
Fooled by Randomness
Fooled by Randomness - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook Fooled by Randomness write by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. This book was released on 2008-10-14. Fooled by Randomness available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Fooled by Randomness is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. The other books in the series are The Black Swan, Antifragile, Skin in the Game, and The Bed of Procrustes. Fooled by Randomness is the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about business and the world. Nassim Nicholas Taleb–veteran trader, renowned risk expert, polymathic scholar, erudite raconteur, and New York Times bestselling author of The Black Swan–has written a modern classic that turns on its head what we believe about luck and skill. This book is about luck–or more precisely, about how we perceive and deal with luck in life and business. Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill–the world of trading–Fooled by Randomness provides captivating insight into one of the least understood factors in all our lives. Writing in an entertaining narrative style, the author tackles major intellectual issues related to the underestimation of the influence of happenstance on our lives. The book is populated with an array of characters, some of whom have grasped, in their own way, the significance of chance: the baseball legend Yogi Berra; the philosopher of knowledge Karl Popper; the ancient world’s wisest man, Solon; the modern financier George Soros; and the Greek voyager Odysseus. We also meet the fictional Nero, who seems to understand the role of randomness in his professional life but falls victim to his own superstitious foolishness. However, the most recognizable character of all remains unnamed–the lucky fool who happens to be in the right place at the right time–he embodies the “survival of the least fit.” Such individuals attract devoted followers who believe in their guru’s insights and methods. But no one can replicate what is obtained by chance. Are we capable of distinguishing the fortunate charlatan from the genuine visionary? Must we always try to uncover nonexistent messages in random events? It may be impossible to guard ourselves against the vagaries of the goddess Fortuna, but after reading Fooled by Randomness we can be a little better prepared. Named by Fortune One of the Smartest Books of All Time A Financial Times Best Business Book of the Year
Teaching Probability
Teaching Probability - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook Teaching Probability write by Jenny Gage. This book was released on 2016-08-04. Teaching Probability available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. These titles focus on the approaches that can be taken in the classroom to develop skills and a conceptual understanding of specific mathematical concepts.
The Great Mental Models, Volume 1
The Great Mental Models, Volume 1 - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook The Great Mental Models, Volume 1 write by Shane Parrish. This book was released on 2024-10-15. The Great Mental Models, Volume 1 available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Discover the essential thinking tools you’ve been missing with The Great Mental Models series by Shane Parrish, New York Times bestselling author and the mind behind the acclaimed Farnam Street blog and “The Knowledge Project” podcast. This first book in the series is your guide to learning the crucial thinking tools nobody ever taught you. Time and time again, great thinkers such as Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett have credited their success to mental models–representations of how something works that can scale onto other fields. Mastering a small number of mental models enables you to rapidly grasp new information, identify patterns others miss, and avoid the common mistakes that hold people back. The Great Mental Models: Volume 1, General Thinking Concepts shows you how making a few tiny changes in the way you think can deliver big results. Drawing on examples from history, business, art, and science, this book details nine of the most versatile, all-purpose mental models you can use right away to improve your decision making and productivity. This book will teach you how to: Avoid blind spots when looking at problems. Find non-obvious solutions. Anticipate and achieve desired outcomes. Play to your strengths, avoid your weaknesses, … and more. The Great Mental Models series demystifies once elusive concepts and illuminates rich knowledge that traditional education overlooks. This series is the most comprehensive and accessible guide on using mental models to better understand our world, solve problems, and gain an advantage.
The Art of Statistics
The Art of Statistics - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook The Art of Statistics write by David Spiegelhalter. This book was released on 2019-09-03. The Art of Statistics available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. In this "important and comprehensive" guide to statistical thinking (New Yorker), discover how data literacy is changing the world and gives you a better understanding of life’s biggest problems. Statistics are everywhere, as integral to science as they are to business, and in the popular media hundreds of times a day. In this age of big data, a basic grasp of statistical literacy is more important than ever if we want to separate the fact from the fiction, the ostentatious embellishments from the raw evidence -- and even more so if we hope to participate in the future, rather than being simple bystanders. In The Art of Statistics, world-renowned statistician David Spiegelhalter shows readers how to derive knowledge from raw data by focusing on the concepts and connections behind the math. Drawing on real world examples to introduce complex issues, he shows us how statistics can help us determine the luckiest passenger on the Titanic, whether a notorious serial killer could have been caught earlier, and if screening for ovarian cancer is beneficial. The Art of Statistics not only shows us how mathematicians have used statistical science to solve these problems -- it teaches us how we too can think like statisticians. We learn how to clarify our questions, assumptions, and expectations when approaching a problem, and -- perhaps even more importantly -- we learn how to responsibly interpret the answers we receive. Combining the incomparable insight of an expert with the playful enthusiasm of an aficionado, The Art of Statistics is the definitive guide to stats that every modern person needs.
