The Dollar as a Speculative Bubble - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook The Dollar as a Speculative Bubble write by . This book was released on 1986. The Dollar as a Speculative Bubble available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle.
The Dollar as an Irrational Speculative Bubble
The Dollar as an Irrational Speculative Bubble - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook The Dollar as an Irrational Speculative Bubble write by Kenneth A. Froot. This book was released on 1987. The Dollar as an Irrational Speculative Bubble available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Several recent developments have inspired us to consider a non-standard model of the dollar as a speculative bubble without the constraint of fully rational expectations: (1) the dollar continued to rise in 1984 after real interest rate differentials and other fundamentals began moving the wrong way; (2) the results of market efficiency tests imply, that the rationally expected rate of dollar depreciation has been less than the forward discount; (3) Krugman-Marris current account calculations suggest that the rationally expected rate of depreciation is greater than the forward discount; (4) survey data show an expected rate of depreciation that is also greater than the forward discount; (5) the hypothesis of a "safe-haven" shift into U.S. assets and a decrease in the U.S. risk premium, which would explain some of the foregoing, is contradicted by a decline in the differential between off shore interest rates (covered) and U.S. interest rates. Our model features three classes of actors: fundamentalists, chartists and portfolio managers. Fundamentalists forecast a depreciation of the dollar based on an overshooting model that would be rational if there were no chartists. Chartists extrapolate recent trends based on an information set that includes no fundamentals. Portfolio managers take positions in the market, and thus determine the exchange rate, based on expectations that area weighted average of the fundamentalists and chartists. The first stage of the dollar appreciation after 1980 is explained by increases in real interest differentials. The second stage is explained by the endogenous takeoff of a speculative bubble when the fundamentalists have mis-forecast for so long that they have lost credibility. In 1985, the dollar may have entered a third stage in which an ever-worsening current account deficit begins a reversal of the bubble
Speculative Bubbles, Speculative Attacks, and Policy Switching
Speculative Bubbles, Speculative Attacks, and Policy Switching - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook Speculative Bubbles, Speculative Attacks, and Policy Switching write by Robert P. Flood. This book was released on 1994. Speculative Bubbles, Speculative Attacks, and Policy Switching available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. The papers in this book are grouped into three sections: the first on price bubbles is primarily financial; the second on speculative attacks (on exchange rate regimes) is international in scope; and the third, on policy switching, is concerned with monetary policy.
Early Speculative Bubbles and Increases in the Supply of Money
Early Speculative Bubbles and Increases in the Supply of Money - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook Early Speculative Bubbles and Increases in the Supply of Money write by . This book was released on 2009-03-16. Early Speculative Bubbles and Increases in the Supply of Money available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. The Housing Bubble was hardly the first in human history. What's eluded historians is the same issue that eludes commentators today: the underlying cause of bubbles. This book is the first (and only) book to solve the mystery of the most famous bubble in world history: Tulipmania in 17th century Netherlands. It Is a legendary event but explanations have been lacking. People blame irrational exuberance, free markets, and an unleashed aristocracy. Douglas French takes a different route: he follows the money to prove that the bubble resulted from a government intervention that dramatically exploded the money supply and fueled the tulip-price bubble – not altogether different from modern bubbles. This book was French’s Master’s thesis written under the direction of Murray Rothbard and examining three of the most famous speculative bubble episodes in history through the lens of Austrian Business Cycle Theory. Although each of these episodes is well documented, this book examines the monetary interventions that engendered each of these events showing that not only the Mississippi Bubble and the South Sea Bubble were caused by government meddling, but Tulipmania was as well. Tulipmania was unique in that it was the sound money policy of the Dutch combined with free coinage laws that led to an acute increase in the supply of money and fostered an atmosphere that was ripe for speculation and malinvestment, manifesting itself in the intense trading of tulip bulbs. The author examines not only the Mississippi Bubble but also the life and monetary theories of its architect, John Law. Professor Joe Salerno calls Law the world’s first macroeconomist who implemented a Keynesian monetary system in France nearly two hundred years before Keynes was born. At the same time across the English Channel, a nearly bankrupt British government looked on with envy at Law’s system, believing that he was working a financial miracle. It was anything but this and investors in both countries were devastated. Although these episodes occurred centuries ago, readers will find the events eerily similar to today’s bubbles and busts: low interest rates, easy credit terms, widespread public participation, bankrupt governments, price inflation, frantic attempts by government to keep the booms going, and government bailouts of companies after the crash. When will we learn? We first have to get cause and effect in history straight. This book is an excellent contribution to that effort.
THE DOLLAR AS A SPECULATIVE BUBBLE: A TALE OF FUNDAMENTALISTS AND CHARTISTS.
THE DOLLAR AS A SPECULATIVE BUBBLE: A TALE OF FUNDAMENTALISTS AND CHARTISTS. - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook THE DOLLAR AS A SPECULATIVE BUBBLE: A TALE OF FUNDAMENTALISTS AND CHARTISTS. write by Jeffrey A. FRANKEL. This book was released on 1986. THE DOLLAR AS A SPECULATIVE BUBBLE: A TALE OF FUNDAMENTALISTS AND CHARTISTS. available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle.
