The Flaw of Averages - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook The Flaw of Averages write by Sam L. Savage. This book was released on 2012-03-13. The Flaw of Averages available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. A must-read for anyone who makes business decisions that have a major financial impact. As the recent collapse on Wall Street shows, we are often ill-equipped to deal with uncertainty and risk. Yet every day we base our personal and business plans on uncertainties, whether they be next month’s sales, next year’s costs, or tomorrow’s stock price. In The Flaw of Averages, Sam Savageknown for his creative exposition of difficult subjects describes common avoidable mistakes in assessing risk in the face of uncertainty. Along the way, he shows why plans based on average assumptions are wrong, on average, in areas as diverse as healthcare, accounting, the War on Terror, and climate change. In his chapter on Sex and the Central Limit Theorem, he bravely grasps the literary third rail of gender differences. Instead of statistical jargon, Savage presents complex concepts in plain English. In addition, a tightly integrated web site contains numerous animations and simulations to further connect the seat of the reader’s intellect to the seat of their pants. The Flaw of Averages typically results when someone plugs a single number into a spreadsheet to represent an uncertain future quantity. Savage finishes the book with a discussion of the emerging field of Probability Management, which cures this problem though a new technology that can pack thousands of numbers into a single spreadsheet cell. Praise for The Flaw of Averages “Statistical uncertainties are pervasive in decisions we make every day in business, government, and our personal lives. Sam Savage’s lively and engaging book gives any interested reader the insight and the tools to deal effectively with those uncertainties. I highly recommend The Flaw of Averages.” —William J. Perry, Former U.S. Secretary of Defense “Enterprise analysis under uncertainty has long been an academic ideal. . . . In this profound and entertaining book, Professor Savage shows how to make all this practical, practicable, and comprehensible.” —Harry Markowitz, Nobel Laureate in Economics
The Flaw of Averages
The Flaw of Averages - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook The Flaw of Averages write by Sam L. Savage. This book was released on 2009-06-03. The Flaw of Averages available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. "Statistical uncertainties are pervasive in decisions we make every day in business, government, and our personal lives. Sam Savage's lively and engaging book gives any interested reader the insight and the tools to deal effectively with those uncertainties. I highly recommend The Flaw of Averages." —William J. Perry, former U.S. Secretary of Defense "Enterprise analysis under uncertainty has long been an academic ideal. . . . In this profound and entertaining book, Professor Savage shows how to make all this practical, practicable, and comprehensible . . . the Distribution String . . . represents a major breakthrough in the communication of risk and uncertainty." —Harry Markowitz, Nobel Laureate in Economics "This is a book written for laymen with enough interesting insights to engage even the most scholarly professional." —Douglas Hubbard, author of How to Measure Anything "Sam Savage is the Edward Tufte of risk." —Matthew Raphaelson, Executive Vice President, Wells Fargo A GROUNDBREAKING MUST-READ FOR ANYONE WHO MAKES BUSINESS DECISIONS IN THE FACE OF UNCERTAINTY In The Flaw of Averages, Sam Savage—known for his creative exposition of difficult subjects—describes common avoidable mistakes in assessing risk in the face of uncertainty. He explains why plans based on average assumptions are wrong, on average, in areas as diverse as finance, healthcare, accounting, the war on terror, and climate change. Savage refers to anachronistic statistical jargon as Red Words, which he defines as things that may not be uttered in a singles bar. Instead, he presents complex concepts in plain English (Green Words), backed up by interactive simulations at www.FlawofAverages.com, which connect the seat of the intellect to the seat of the pants. Savage also presents the emerging field of Probability Management aimed at curing the Flaw of Averages through more transparent communication of uncertainty and risk. Savage argues that this is a problem that must be solved if we are to improve the stability of our economy, and that we cannot repeat the recent mistakes of applying "steam era" statistics to "information age" risks.
The End of Average
The End of Average - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook The End of Average write by Todd Rose. This book was released on 2016-01-19. The End of Average available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Are you above average? Is your child an A student? Is your employee an introvert or an extrovert? Every day we are measured against the yardstick of averages, judged according to how closely we come to it or how far we deviate from it. The assumption that metrics comparing us to an average—like GPAs, personality test results, and performance review ratings—reveal something meaningful about our potential is so ingrained in our consciousness that we don’t even question it. That assumption, says Harvard’s Todd Rose, is spectacularly—and scientifically—wrong. In The End of Average, Rose, a rising star in the new field of the science of the individual shows that no one is average. Not you. Not your kids. Not your employees. This isn’t hollow sloganeering—it’s a mathematical fact with enormous practical consequences. But while we know people learn and develop in distinctive ways, these unique patterns of behaviors are lost in our schools and businesses which have been designed around the mythical “average person.” This average-size-fits-all model ignores our differences and fails at recognizing talent. It’s time to change it. Weaving science, history, and his personal experiences as a high school dropout, Rose offers a powerful alternative to understanding individuals through averages: the three principles of individuality. The jaggedness principle (talent is always jagged), the context principle (traits are a myth), and the pathways principle (we all walk the road less traveled) help us understand our true uniqueness—and that of others—and how to take full advantage of individuality to gain an edge in life. Read this powerful manifesto in the ranks of Drive, Quiet, and Mindset—and you won’t see averages or talent in the same way again.
Flaws and Fallacies in Statistical Thinking
Flaws and Fallacies in Statistical Thinking - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook Flaws and Fallacies in Statistical Thinking write by Stephen K. Campbell. This book was released on 2012-05-14. Flaws and Fallacies in Statistical Thinking available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Nontechnical survey helps improve ability to judge statistical evidence and to make better-informed decisions. Discusses common pitfalls: unrealistic estimates, improper comparisons, premature conclusions, and faulty thinking about probability. 1974 edition.
Decision Making with Insight
Decision Making with Insight - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook Decision Making with Insight write by Sam L. Savage. This book was released on 2003. Decision Making with Insight available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Dr. Sam Savage, who's recognized as a leading innovator in management science education, provides the most hands-on , practical introduction to methods of decision making. This book and accompanying suite of Excel add-ins for quantitative analysis covers Monte Carlo simulation, decision trees, queuing simulations, optimization, Markov chains, and forecasting. The Insight add-ins have been developed over several years by the author.
