The Impact of Global Uncertainty on the Global Economy, and Large Developed and Developing Economies - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook The Impact of Global Uncertainty on the Global Economy, and Large Developed and Developing Economies write by Wensheng Kang. This book was released on 2017. The Impact of Global Uncertainty on the Global Economy, and Large Developed and Developing Economies available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Global uncertainty shocks are associated with a sharp decline in global inflation, global growth and in the global interest rate. Over 1981 to 2014 global financial uncertainty forecasts 18.26% and 14.95% of the variation in global growth and global inflation respectively. Global uncertainty shocks have more protracted, statistically significant and substantial effects on global growth, inflation and interest rate than U.S. uncertainty shocks. U.S. uncertainty lags global uncertainty by one month. When controlling for domestic uncertainty, the decline in output following a rise in global uncertainty is statistically significant in each country, with the exception of the decline for China. The effects for the U.S. and for China are also relatively small. For most economies, a positive shock to global uncertainty has a depressing effect on prices and official interest rates. Exceptions are Brazil, Mexico and Russia, economies with large capital outflows during financial crises. Decomposition of global uncertainty shocks shows that global financial uncertainty shocks are more important than non-financial shocks.
Global Economic Prospects, June 2021
Global Economic Prospects, June 2021 - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook Global Economic Prospects, June 2021 write by World Bank. This book was released on 2021-08-03. Global Economic Prospects, June 2021 available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. The world economy is experiencing a very strong but uneven recovery, with many emerging market and developing economies facing obstacles to vaccination. The global outlook remains uncertain, with major risks around the path of the pandemic and the possibility of financial stress amid large debt loads. Policy makers face a difficult balancing act as they seek to nurture the recovery while safeguarding price stability and fiscal sustainability. A comprehensive set of policies will be required to promote a strong recovery that mitigates inequality and enhances environmental sustainability, ultimately putting economies on a path of green, resilient, and inclusive development. Prominent among the necessary policies are efforts to lower trade costs so that trade can once again become a robust engine of growth. This year marks the 30th anniversary of the Global Economic Prospects. The Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing economies, on a semiannual basis (in January and June). Each edition includes analytical pieces on topical policy challenges faced by these economies.
Measuring Global and Country-Specific Uncertainty
Measuring Global and Country-Specific Uncertainty - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook Measuring Global and Country-Specific Uncertainty write by Ezgi O. Ozturk. This book was released on 2017-10-30. Measuring Global and Country-Specific Uncertainty available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Motivated by the literature on the capital asset pricing model, we decompose the uncertainty of a typical forecaster into common and idiosyncratic uncertainty. Using individual survey data from the Consensus Forecasts over the period of 1989-2014, we develop monthly measures of macroeconomic uncertainty covering 45 countries and construct a measure of global uncertainty as the weighted average of country-specific uncertainties. Our measure captures perceived uncertainty of market participants and derives from two components that are shown to exhibit strikingly different behavior. Common uncertainty shocks produce the large and persistent negative response in real economic activity, whereas the contributions of idiosyncratic uncertainty shocks are negligible.
Global Uncertainty and the Global Economy
Global Uncertainty and the Global Economy - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook Global Uncertainty and the Global Economy write by Wensheng Kang. This book was released on 2016. Global Uncertainty and the Global Economy available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. We constructed a new index of global uncertainty using the first principal component of the stock market volatility for the largest 15 economies. We evaluate the impact of global uncertainty on the global economy using the new global database from Global Economic Indicators (DGEI), Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. Global uncertainty shocks are less frequent than those observed in data on the U.S. economy. Global uncertainty shocks are associated with a sharp decline in global inflation, global growth and in the global interest rate (based on official/policy interest rates set by central banks). Our decomposition of global uncertainty shocks shows that global financial uncertainty shocks are more important than non-financial shocks. Over the period 1981 to 2014 global financial uncertainty forecasts 18.26% and 14.95% of the variation in global growth and global inflation respectively. The non-financial uncertainty shocks have insignificant effects on global growth. The model for global variables shows more protracted and substantial negative effects of uncertainty on growth and inflation than does a panel model estimating associations of local country-level variables. This outcome is reversed for the effect of uncertainty on official interest rate.
Economic Uncertainty in the Post-Pandemic Era
Economic Uncertainty in the Post-Pandemic Era - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook Economic Uncertainty in the Post-Pandemic Era write by Fatma Feyza Gunduz. This book was released on 2024-12-10. Economic Uncertainty in the Post-Pandemic Era available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. This book underscores the post-COVID global uncertainties that are still occurring on the world stage and presents the recent challenges such as geo-political tensions, war, economic disturbances, climate change, the energy crisis in Europe, recessions in developed economies and their effect on developing and least developed economies.
