Thinking Probabilistically - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook Thinking Probabilistically write by Ariel Amir. This book was released on 2020-12-17. Thinking Probabilistically available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. An introductory text providing the reader with a thorough background to the rich world of applications of stochastic processes.
Cognition and Chance
Cognition and Chance - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook Cognition and Chance write by Raymond S. Nickerson. This book was released on 2004-06-24. Cognition and Chance available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Lack of ability to think probabilistically makes one prone to a variety of irrational fears and vulnerable to scams designed to exploit probabilistic naiveté, impairs decision making under uncertainty, facilitates the misinterpretation of statistical information, and precludes critical evaluation of likelihood claims. Cognition and Chance presents an overview of the information needed to avoid such pitfalls and to assess and respond to probabilistic situations in a rational way. Dr. Nickerson investigates such questions as how good individuals are at thinking probabilistically and how consistent their reasoning under uncertainty is with principles of mathematical statistics and probability theory. He reviews evidence that has been produced in researchers' attempts to investigate these and similar types of questions. Seven conceptual chapters address such topics as probability, chance, randomness, coincidences, inverse probability, paradoxes, dilemmas, and statistics. The remaining five chapters focus on empirical studies of individuals' abilities and limitations as probabilistic thinkers. Topics include estimation and prediction, perception of covariation, choice under uncertainty, and people as intuitive probabilists. Cognition and Chance is intended to appeal to researchers and students in the areas of probability, statistics, psychology, business, economics, decision theory, and social dilemmas.
Embracing Uncertainty: The Revolutionary Science of Stress-Free Living Through Probabilistic Thinking
Embracing Uncertainty: The Revolutionary Science of Stress-Free Living Through Probabilistic Thinking - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook Embracing Uncertainty: The Revolutionary Science of Stress-Free Living Through Probabilistic Thinking write by Gaurav Garg. This book was released on 2024-08-22. Embracing Uncertainty: The Revolutionary Science of Stress-Free Living Through Probabilistic Thinking available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. In a world obsessed with certainty, this book dares to embrace the unknown. "Dancing with Uncertainty" isn't just a catchy title—it's a revolutionary approach to navigating the complexities of modern life. Within these pages, you'll discover how to harness the power of probabilistic thinking to make better decisions, manage risks, and find opportunities where others see only chaos. From the boardroom to the bedroom, from financial investments to personal relationships, this book will transform the way you view the world. Key concepts you'll explore include: The Probabilistic Mindset: Learn to see life as a series of probabilities rather than absolutes. The 60/40 Rule: A practical guide to decision-making in uncertain situations. Expected Value Calculations: Maximize your 'life ROI' by understanding the true value of your choices. The Monte Carlo Method: Simulate multiple futures to prepare for any outcome. Bayesian Thinking: Update your beliefs intelligently as new information comes to light. But this isn't just a dry textbook. It's filled with real-life examples, practical exercises, and even a dash of humor. You'll learn from poker players, stock traders, meteorologists, and everyday people who've used probabilistic thinking to achieve extraordinary results. "In an uncertain world, the only mistake is to be unprepared. This book is your guide to turning uncertainty into your greatest advantage." Whether you're a CEO making high-stakes decisions, a student planning your future, or simply someone looking to navigate life with more confidence, "Dancing with Uncertainty" offers a new lens through which to view the world. So, are you ready to embrace the power of probability? To see opportunities where others see only risk? To dance with uncertainty and lead a richer, more calculated life? Open this book, and take your first step into a larger, more probabilistic world.
The Great Mental Models, Volume 1
The Great Mental Models, Volume 1 - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook The Great Mental Models, Volume 1 write by Shane Parrish. This book was released on 2024-10-15. The Great Mental Models, Volume 1 available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Discover the essential thinking tools you’ve been missing with The Great Mental Models series by Shane Parrish, New York Times bestselling author and the mind behind the acclaimed Farnam Street blog and “The Knowledge Project” podcast. This first book in the series is your guide to learning the crucial thinking tools nobody ever taught you. Time and time again, great thinkers such as Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett have credited their success to mental models–representations of how something works that can scale onto other fields. Mastering a small number of mental models enables you to rapidly grasp new information, identify patterns others miss, and avoid the common mistakes that hold people back. The Great Mental Models: Volume 1, General Thinking Concepts shows you how making a few tiny changes in the way you think can deliver big results. Drawing on examples from history, business, art, and science, this book details nine of the most versatile, all-purpose mental models you can use right away to improve your decision making and productivity. This book will teach you how to: Avoid blind spots when looking at problems. Find non-obvious solutions. Anticipate and achieve desired outcomes. Play to your strengths, avoid your weaknesses, … and more. The Great Mental Models series demystifies once elusive concepts and illuminates rich knowledge that traditional education overlooks. This series is the most comprehensive and accessible guide on using mental models to better understand our world, solve problems, and gain an advantage.
Thinking Probabilistically
Thinking Probabilistically - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook Thinking Probabilistically write by Ariel Amir. This book was released on 2020-12-17. Thinking Probabilistically available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Probability theory has diverse applications in a plethora of fields, including physics, engineering, computer science, chemistry, biology and economics. This book will familiarize students with various applications of probability theory, stochastic modeling and random processes, using examples from all these disciplines and more. The reader learns via case studies and begins to recognize the sort of problems that are best tackled probabilistically. The emphasis is on conceptual understanding, the development of intuition and gaining insight, keeping technicalities to a minimum. Nevertheless, a glimpse into the depth of the topics is provided, preparing students for more specialized texts while assuming only an undergraduate-level background in mathematics. The wide range of areas covered - never before discussed together in a unified fashion – includes Markov processes and random walks, Langevin and Fokker–Planck equations, noise, generalized central limit theorem and extreme values statistics, random matrix theory and percolation theory.
