Understanding the Weakness in Global Trade - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook Understanding the Weakness in Global Trade write by . This book was released on 2016. Understanding the Weakness in Global Trade available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Global trade has been exceptionally weak over the past four years. While global trade grew at approximately twice the rate of GDP prior to the Great Recession, the ratio of global trade to GDP growth has declined to about unity since 2012. This paper assesses to what extent the change in the relationship between global trade and global economic activity is a temporary phenomenon or constitutes a lasting change. It finds that global trade growth has been primarily dampened by two factors. First, compositional factors, including geographical shifts in economic activity and changes in the composition of aggregate demand, have weighed on the sensitivity of trade to economic activity. Second, structural developments, such as waning growth in global value chains, a rise in non-tariff protectionist measures and a declining marginal impact of financial deepening, are dampening the support from factors that boosted global trade in the past. Notwithstanding the particularly pronounced weakness in 2015 that is assessed to be mostly a temporary phenomenon owing to a number of country-specific adverse shocks, the upside potential for trade over the medium term appears to be limited. The "new normal" for global trade can therefore be expected to look broadly similar to the weakness observed over recent years on average. In this sense, buoyant trade dynamics in the 1990s and early 2000s may have been what was exceptional, rather than the slowdown over recent years.
Understanding the Weakness in Global Trade
Understanding the Weakness in Global Trade - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook Understanding the Weakness in Global Trade write by . This book was released on 2018. Understanding the Weakness in Global Trade available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. The post-crisis weakness of global trade, which starkly contrasts with the marked acceleration in the previous two decades, has received considerable attention in the context of the global policy debate. Given the key role of trade in spreading innovation, boosting productivity and ultimately fostering economic growth, a better understanding of trade developments and outlook is crucial for policymakers. This paper takes stock of existing empirical studies on the determinants of global trade flows with particular attention given the recent slowdown. In line with our estimates, these studies suggest that a large part of the trade weakness can be explained by geographical shifts in GDP and trade shares towards less intensely-trading emerging markets, changes in the composition of demand away from import-intensive investment, and the slowdown of global value chains. Other important factors include structural changes in China, the unwinding of the commodity price boom and a slower pace of multilateral trade liberalisation. Our findings, in line with recent literature, suggest that the "new normal" is for trade expansion to remain largely in line with output growth, and unlikely to regain its pre-crisis vigour. At the same time, policymakers should ensure that the ongoing recovery is sustained, by resisting protectionism and reinvigorating the trade liberalisation agenda.
The Global Trade Slowdown
The Global Trade Slowdown - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook The Global Trade Slowdown write by Cristina Constantinescu. This book was released on 2015-01-21. The Global Trade Slowdown available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. This paper focuses on the sluggish growth of world trade relative to income growth in recent years. The analysis uses an empirical strategy based on an error correction model to assess whether the global trade slowdown is structural or cyclical. An estimate of the relationship between trade and income in the past four decades reveals that the long-term trade elasticity rose sharply in the 1990s, but declined significantly in the 2000s even before the global financial crisis. These results suggest that trade is growing slowly not only because of slow growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), but also because of a structural change in the trade-GDP relationship in recent years. The available evidence suggests that the explanation may lie in the slowing pace of international vertical specialization rather than increasing protection or the changing composition of trade and GDP.
The Slowdown in Global Trade: A Symptom of A Weak Recovery
The Slowdown in Global Trade: A Symptom of A Weak Recovery - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook The Slowdown in Global Trade: A Symptom of A Weak Recovery write by Aqib Aslam. This book was released on 2017-11-15. The Slowdown in Global Trade: A Symptom of A Weak Recovery available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Global trade growth has slowed since 2012 relative both to its strong historical performance and to overall economic growth. This paper aims to quantify the role of weak economic growth and changes in its decomposition in accounting for the slowdown in trade using a reduced form and a structural approach. Both analytical investigations suggest that the overall weakness in economic activity, particularly investment, has been the primary restraint on trade growth, accounting for over 80 percent of the decline in the growth of the volume of goods trade between 2012–16 and 2003–07. However, other factors are also weighing on trade in recent years, especially in emerging market and developing economies, as evidenced by the non-negligible role attributed to trade costs by the structural approach.
Does the Post-Crisis Weakness of Global Trade Solely Reflect Weak Demand?
Does the Post-Crisis Weakness of Global Trade Solely Reflect Weak Demand? - read free eBook in online reader or directly download on the web page. Select files or add your book in reader. Download and read online ebook Does the Post-Crisis Weakness of Global Trade Solely Reflect Weak Demand? write by . This book was released on 2015. Does the Post-Crisis Weakness of Global Trade Solely Reflect Weak Demand? available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle.
